Centro de Diagnóstico e Investigación en Endemo-epidemias, CeNDIE, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
Departamento de Biodiversidad y Biología Experimental. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales. Universidad de Buenos Aires, FCEyN UBA. Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina.
PLoS Negl Trop Dis. 2021 Jan 5;15(1):e0008881. doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0008881. eCollection 2021 Jan.
The province of Formosa, Argentina, is endemic for leprosy. In the present paper, we assessed the trend (T, 2002-2016 time series) and the forecast for 2022 of new case detection rate (NCDR) and determined the spatial distribution of new cases detected (NCD) of leprosy.
METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: This is a descriptive observational study of 713 NCD of leprosy from provincial medical records between January 2002 and December 2016. The whole dataset from the provincial medical record was used to independently estimate the NCDR trends of the general population, age groups, sexes and Departments. This same database was used to estimate the NCDR forecast of the general population for 2022, applying a dynamic linear model with a local linear trend, using the MCMC algorithm. The NCDR was higher in men (p<0.05), increased with age (0.20, 8.17, 21.04, and 29.49 for the 0-14, 15-44, 45-64 and over 65-year-old age groups, respectively; p<0.05) and showed a downward trend (negative values) of estimated slopes for the whole province and each Department. Bermejo Department showed the highest (T:-1.02, 95%CI: [-1.42, -0.66]) and Patiño the lowest decreasing trend (T:-0.45, 95%CI: [-0.74, -0.11]). The NCDR trend for both sexes was similar (T:-0.55, 95%CI: [-0.64, -0.46]), and age groups showed a decreasing trend (S15-44:-103, S45-64:-81, S>65:-61, p<0.05), except for the 0-14 age group (S:-3, p>0.05), which showed no trend. Forecasts predicted that leprosy will not be eliminated by 2022 (3.64, 95%CI: [1.22, 10.25]).
CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our results highlight the status of leprosy in Formosa and provide information to the provincial public health authorities on high-risk populations, stressing the importance of timely detection of new cases for further elimination of the disease in the province.
阿根廷福摩萨省是麻风病流行区。在本研究中，我们评估了新病例检出率（NCDR）的趋势（T，2002-2016 时间序列）和 2022 年的预测，并确定了麻风病新病例检出（NCD）的空间分布。
方法/主要发现：这是一项对 2002 年 1 月至 2016 年 12 月期间省级病历中 713 例麻风病新病例的描述性观察研究。从省级病历中获取的整个数据集用于独立估计一般人群、年龄组、性别和部门的 NCDR 趋势。使用动态线性模型和局部线性趋势，使用 MCMC 算法，对一般人群 2022 年的 NCDR 进行预测。NCDR 在男性中较高（p<0.05），随年龄增长而增加（0-14 岁、15-44 岁、45-64 岁和>65 岁年龄组的 NCDR 分别为 0.20、8.17、21.04 和 29.49；p<0.05），并且整个省份和每个部门的估计斜率都呈现下降趋势（负值）。贝尔梅霍部门的下降趋势最大（T:-1.02，95%CI：[-1.42，-0.66]），而帕蒂诺的下降趋势最小（T:-0.45，95%CI：[-0.74，-0.11]）。男女两性的 NCDR 趋势相似（T:-0.55，95%CI：[-0.64，-0.46]），年龄组呈下降趋势（S15-44：-103，S45-64：-81，S>65：-61，p<0.05），但 0-14 岁年龄组除外（S：-3，p>0.05），其无趋势。预测显示，到 2022 年麻风病不会被消除（3.64，95%CI：[1.22，10.25]）。
结论/意义：我们的研究结果突出了福摩萨省麻风病的现状，并为省级公共卫生当局提供了高危人群的信息，强调及时发现新病例对该省进一步消除该病的重要性。
