Champer Jackson, Kim Isabel K, Champer Samuel E, Clark Andrew G, Messer Philipp W
Department of Computational Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Department of Molecular Biology and Genetics, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York, USA.
Mol Ecol. 2021 Feb;30(4):1086-1101. doi: 10.1111/mec.15788. Epub 2021 Jan 23.
Rapid evolutionary processes can produce drastically different outcomes when studied in panmictic population models vs. spatial models. One such process is gene drive, which describes the spread of "selfish" genetic elements through a population. Engineered gene drives are being considered for the suppression of disease vectors or invasive species. While laboratory experiments and modelling in panmictic populations have shown that such drives can rapidly eliminate a population, it remains unclear if these results translate to natural environments where individuals inhabit a continuous landscape. Using spatially explicit simulations, we show that the release of a suppression drive can result in what we term "chasing" dynamics, in which wild-type individuals recolonize areas where the drive has locally eliminated the population. Despite the drive subsequently reconquering these areas, complete population suppression often fails to occur or is substantially delayed. This increases the likelihood that the drive is lost or that resistance evolves. We analyse how chasing dynamics are influenced by the type of drive, its efficiency, fitness costs, and ecological factors such as the maximal growth rate of the population and levels of dispersal and inbreeding. We find that chasing is more common for lower efficiency drives when dispersal is low and that some drive mechanisms are substantially more prone to chasing behaviour than others. Our results demonstrate that the population dynamics of suppression gene drives are determined by a complex interplay of genetic and ecological factors, highlighting the need for realistic spatial modelling to predict the outcome of drive releases in natural populations.
在随机交配种群模型与空间模型中进行研究时,快速进化过程可能会产生截然不同的结果。基因驱动就是这样一种过程,它描述了“自私”遗传元件在种群中的传播。工程化基因驱动正被考虑用于抑制病媒或入侵物种。虽然在随机交配种群中的实验室实验和建模表明,这种驱动可以迅速消灭一个种群,但这些结果是否适用于个体栖息在连续景观中的自然环境仍不清楚。通过空间明确的模拟,我们表明释放抑制性驱动可能会导致我们所说的“追逐”动态,即野生型个体重新定殖驱动在当地已消灭种群的区域。尽管驱动随后会重新占领这些区域,但完全的种群抑制往往无法实现或会大幅延迟。这增加了驱动丢失或抗性进化的可能性。我们分析了追逐动态如何受到驱动类型、其效率、适应度成本以及生态因素(如种群的最大增长率、扩散水平和近亲繁殖)的影响。我们发现,当扩散率较低时,追逐现象在效率较低的驱动中更为常见,并且一些驱动机制比其他机制更容易出现追逐行为。我们的结果表明,抑制性基因驱动的种群动态由遗传和生态因素的复杂相互作用决定,突出了需要进行现实的空间建模来预测自然种群中驱动释放的结果。