MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Department of Biology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Nat Commun. 2024 Oct 17;15(1):8976. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-53065-z.
Gene drives are a promising means of malaria control with the potential to cause sustained reductions in transmission. In real environments, however, their impacts will depend on local ecological and epidemiological factors. We develop a data-driven model to investigate the impacts of gene drives that causes vector population suppression. We simulate gene drive releases in sixteen ~ 12,000 km areas of west Africa that span variation in vector ecology and malaria prevalence, and estimate reductions in vector abundance, malaria prevalence and clinical cases. Average reductions in vector abundance ranged from 71.6-98.4% across areas, while impacts on malaria depended strongly on which vector species were targeted. When other new interventions including RTS,S vaccination and pyrethroid-PBO bednets were in place, at least 60% more clinical cases were averted when gene drives were added, demonstrating the benefits of integrated interventions. Our results show that different strategies for gene drive implementation may be required across different African settings.
基因驱动是一种有前途的疟疾控制手段，有可能持续降低传播率。然而，在实际环境中，它们的影响将取决于当地的生态和流行病学因素。我们开发了一个数据驱动的模型来研究导致媒介种群抑制的基因驱动的影响。我们模拟了在横跨媒介生态学和疟疾流行率变化的西非 16 到 12000 公里范围内的基因驱动释放，并估计了媒介丰度、疟疾流行率和临床病例的减少。在不同的区域，媒介丰度的平均减少范围从 71.6%到 98.4%不等，而疟疾的影响则强烈取决于目标的媒介物种。当包括 RTS,S 疫苗接种和拟除虫菊酯-PBO 蚊帐在内的其他新干预措施到位时，添加基因驱动可以避免至少 60%的临床病例，这表明了综合干预的好处。我们的研究结果表明，在不同的非洲环境中，可能需要不同的基因驱动实施策略。
