Caught in the crossfire: 37 Years of firearm violence afflicting America's youth.

INTRODUCTION

Publicly available firearm data are difficult to access. Trauma registry data are excellent at documenting patterns of firearm-related injury. Law enforcement data excel at capturing national violence trends to include both circumstances and firearm involvement. The goal of this study was to use publicly available law enforcement data from all 50 states to better define patterns of firearm-related homicides in the young.

METHODS

All homicides in individuals 25 years or younger in the United States over a 37-year period ending in 2016 were analyzed: infant, 1 year or younger; child, 1 to 9 years old; adolescent, 10 to 19 years old; and young adult, 20 to 25 years old. Primary data files were obtained from the Federal Bureau of Investigation and comprised the database. Data analyzed included homicide type, situation, circumstance, month, firearm type, and demographics. Rates of all homicides and firearm-related homicides per 1 million population and the proportion of firearm-related homicides (out of all homicides) were stratified by year and compared over time using simple linear regression.

RESULTS

A total of 171,113 incidents of firearm-related homicide were analyzed (69% of 246,437 total homicides): 5,313 infants, 2,332 children, 59,777 adolescents, and 103,691 young adults. Most (88%) were male and Black (59%) with a median age of 20 years. Firearm-related homicides peaked during the summer months of June, July, and August (median, 1,156 per year; p = 0.0032). Rates of all homicides (89 to 53 per 1 million population) and firearm-related homicides (56 to 41 per 1 million population) decreased significantly from 1980 to 2016 (β = -1.12, p < 0.0001 and β = -0.57, p = 0.0039, respectively). However, linear regression analysis identified a significant increase in the proportion of firearm-related homicides (out of all homicides) from 63% in 1980 to 76% in 2016 (β = 0.33, p < 0.0001).

CONCLUSION

For those 25 years or younger, the proportion of firearm-related homicides has steadily and significantly increased over the past 37 years, with 3 of 4 homicides firearm related in the modern era. Despite focused efforts, reductions in the rate of firearm-related homicides still lag behind those for all other methods of homicide by nearly 50%. That is, while the young are less likely to die from homicide, for those unfortunate victims, it is more likely to be due to a firearm. This increasing role of firearms in youth homicides underscores the desperate need to better direct prevention efforts and firearm policy if we hope to further reduce firearm-related deaths in the young.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Epidemiological study, level III.