Harrington S, Litan R E
Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 14104-6218.
Science. 1988 Feb 12;239(4841 Pt 1):737-41. doi: 10.1126/science.3340855.
In this article the reasons for recent dramatic premium increases for liability insurance are explored by examination of available data on industry premiums, losses, and expenses. The suggestions that the premium increases were primarily caused by collusion among insurers, cyclical behavior, or systematic errors in forecasting losses are rejected. Instead, the evidence indicates that the jump in liability insurance premiums is most plausibly due to the growth in the discounted value of expected liability losses.
在本文中，通过审查有关行业保费、损失和费用的现有数据，探讨了近期责任保险保费大幅上涨的原因。保险公司之间的勾结、周期性行为或损失预测中的系统性错误等导致保费上涨的说法被否定。相反，证据表明责任保险保费的跃升最有可能是由于预期责任损失的贴现价值的增长。
