International Prevention Research Institute (iPRI), Lyon, France.
Faculty of Physical Education and Physiotherapy, Department of Human Biometrics and Biomechanics, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
Eur J Public Health. 2021 Apr 24;31(2):355-360. doi: 10.1093/eurpub/ckaa233.
Prospective cohort studies on diet and cancer report risk associations as hazard ratios. But hazard ratios do not inform on the number of people who need to alter their dietary behaviours for preventing cancer. The objective of this study is to estimate the number of people that need to alter their diet for preventing one additional case of female breast or colorectal cancer.
Based on the largest prospective studies done in the USA and in Europe, we computed the number of subjects who need to alter their diet.
For preventing one case of breast cancer, European women should increase their fruit consumption by 100 g/day during 33 000 person-years, and US women by 60 g/day during 10 600 person-years. For vegetables, European women should increase their consumption by 160 g/day during 26 900 person-years and US women by 100 g/day during 19 000 person-years. For preventing one case of colorectal cancer, European subjects should decrease their red meat consumption by 20 g/day during 26 100 person-years, and US subjects by 30 g/day during 8170 person-years. For processed meat, European subjects should decrease their consumption by 20 g/day during 17 400 person-years, and US subjects by 10 g/day during 7940 person-years.
Large number of subjects would need to alter their intake of fruits, vegetables, red and processed meat during many years in order to prevent one additional breast or colorectal cancer.
关于饮食与癌症的前瞻性队列研究报告风险比的关联。但是,风险比并不能说明需要改变多少人的饮食习惯来预防癌症。本研究旨在估计需要改变饮食以预防女性乳腺癌或结直肠癌的人数。
基于在美国和欧洲进行的最大型前瞻性研究,我们计算了需要改变饮食的人数。
为了预防一例乳腺癌,欧洲女性需要在 33000 人年中每天增加 100 克水果摄入,美国女性需要在 10600 人年中每天增加 60 克水果摄入。对于蔬菜,欧洲女性需要在 26900 人年中每天增加 160 克摄入,美国女性需要在 19000 人年中每天增加 100 克摄入。为了预防一例结直肠癌,欧洲人需要在 26100 人年中每天减少 20 克红肉摄入,美国人需要在 8170 人年中每天减少 30 克红肉摄入。对于加工肉类,欧洲人需要在 17400 人年中每天减少 20 克摄入,美国人需要在 7940 人年中每天减少 10 克摄入。
为了预防一例额外的乳腺癌或结直肠癌,需要大量的人在多年内改变他们的水果、蔬菜、红肉和加工肉类的摄入量。