The impact of pharmaceutical innovation on the longevity and hospitalization of New Zealand cancer patients, 1998-2017.

BACKGROUND

We investigate whether the cancer sites that experienced more pharmaceutical innovation in New Zealand had larger subsequent declines in premature mortality and hospitalization rates and larger subsequent increases in 5-year survival rates, controlling for changes in incidence.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We estimate the effects of the number of WHO ATC5 chemical substances and ATC4 chemical subgroups approved on the number of years of potential life lost before ages 85, 75, 65, 5-year relative survival rates, and the number of inpatient hospital discharges, by estimating difference-in-differences (2-way fixed-effects) models using aggregate longitudinal data on 23 cancer sites.

RESULTS

Substances/subgroups approved during 1985-2001 reduced the number of years of potential life lost before age 85 (YPLL85) in 2017 by 67%. Those substances/subgroups reduced YPLL75 and YPLL65 in 2017 by similar percentages. The odds of surviving at least 5 years after diagnosis are significantly positively related to the number of substances previously approved.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost per life-year before age 85 gained in 2017 from previous drug approvals did not exceed 1719 USD. The WHO considers interventions whose cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained is less than per capita GDP to be highly cost-effective; New Zealand's per capita GDP in 2017 was 42,260 USD. capita GDP in 2017 was 42,260 USD.

EXPERT OPINION

Pharmaceutical innovation-the introduction and use of new drugs-substantially increased cancer survival rates in New Zealand, and substantially reduced premature (before ages 85, 75, and 65) cancer mortality there during the period 1998-2017. Moreover, overall the new cancer drugs were highly costeffective. The drugs approved during 1985-2001 are estimated to have reduced the number of years of potential life lost before age 85 in 2017 by 244,876. Even if previous drug approvals increased the cost of hospital discharges and other medical costs, the cost per life-year before age 85 gained in 2017 from those approvals could not have exceeded 1719 USD.