Swank R T, Becker D M, Jackson C A
Department of Biostatistics, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions, Baltimore, MD 21205.
Arch Intern Med. 1988 Feb;148(2):445-8.
A computer simulation model of the economic impact of employee smoking on an employer was developed with a population of hospital nurses as the example. Net economic impact was calculated by estimating cumulative costs borne by the employer under various scenarios and comparing them with projected costs estimated from baseline data. The model included the following: baseline number of staff, baseline percentage of smokers, annual employee turnover rate, number of smokers interested in quitting, the cost of a smoking cessation program, expected success rate of a voluntary cessation program, smokers quitting spontaneously without a program, and employer-borne costs related to employee smoking. A variety of scenarios were constructed to generate a range of employer net economic impact figures and resulting percentages of smoking employees. Results showed that the benefits of a cessation program would be eliminated over several years, unless the prevalence of smoking in incoming employees was reduced. The most favorable scenario, combining a hospital cessation program and reduced smoking among new employees, generated cumulative savings, discounted at 5%, of $358,000 to $684,000 over an eight-year period.
以医院护士群体为例，开发了一个关于员工吸烟对雇主经济影响的计算机模拟模型。通过估计雇主在各种情况下承担的累积成本，并将其与根据基线数据估算的预计成本进行比较，计算出净经济影响。该模型包括以下内容：员工基线数量、吸烟者基线百分比、年员工流动率、有戒烟意愿的吸烟者数量、戒烟计划成本、自愿戒烟计划的预期成功率、无计划自行戒烟的吸烟者数量以及与员工吸烟相关的雇主承担成本。构建了各种情景，以生成一系列雇主净经济影响数字以及吸烟员工的相应百分比。结果表明，除非新入职员工的吸烟率降低，否则戒烟计划的益处将在数年内消失。最有利的情景是结合医院戒烟计划和新员工吸烟率降低，在八年期间按5%贴现计算，累计节省35.8万美元至68.4万美元。
