Levy D T, Wen C P, Chen T Y, Oblak M
Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, University of Baltimore, Baltimore, Maryland, USA.
Tob Control. 2005 Jun;14 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):i45-50. doi: 10.1136/tc.2003.005660.
To develop a simulation model to predict the effects of tax policies on smoking prevalence rates and smoking attributable deaths.
Using data from Taiwan, a simulation model is developed that projects population using birth and death rate data, future smoking rates using initiation, cessation and relapse data, and smoking attributable deaths using smoking prevalence and relative risk estimates. The model projects the number of smokers and smoking related deaths from a baseline year forward. The effects of taxes of different sizes, indexed and unindexed, and temporary versus sustained are modelled using elasticities based on published studies of demand.
The model predicts that sustained tax increases have the potential to substantially reduce the number of smokers and the number of premature deaths, with the effects growing over time. Indexing taxes to inflation stems erosion of the tax effect. In our model, when the tax increases by 10 times (NTD 50) over the recent tax increase (NTD 5) and taxes are indexed to inflation, the smoking prevalence rate falls by over 15% soon after the tax increase, and by about 30% in relative terms by the year 2040, resulting in 4500 lives saved per year.
Tax rises have the ability to substantially affect smoking rates in Taiwan. These effects grow over time and lead to substantial savings in lives and health care costs.
建立一个模拟模型，以预测税收政策对吸烟流行率和吸烟所致死亡的影响。
利用来自台湾的数据，建立一个模拟模型，该模型使用出生和死亡率数据预测人口，使用开始吸烟、戒烟和复吸数据预测未来吸烟率，并使用吸烟流行率和相对风险估计值预测吸烟所致死亡。该模型从基准年开始预测吸烟者数量和与吸烟相关的死亡人数。使用基于已发表的需求研究的弹性，对不同规模（指数化和非指数化）以及临时与持续的税收影响进行建模。
该模型预测，持续提高税收有可能大幅减少吸烟者数量和过早死亡人数，且影响会随着时间推移而增大。将税收与通货膨胀挂钩可阻止税收效应的侵蚀。在我们的模型中，当税收比最近一次税收增加（新台币5元）提高10倍（新台币50元）且税收与通货膨胀挂钩时，税收增加后不久吸烟流行率下降超过15%，到2040年相对下降约30%，每年可挽救4500人的生命。
提高税收能够对台湾的吸烟率产生重大影响。这些影响会随着时间推移而增大，并能大幅节省生命和医疗成本。
