Benjamin Daniel J, Laibson David, Mischel Walter, Peake Philip K, Shoda Yuichi, Wellsjo Alexandra Steiny, Wilson Nicole L
Center for Economic and Social Research and Department of Economics, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, United States.
National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States.
J Econ Behav Organ. 2020 Nov;179:743-756. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2019.08.016. Epub 2019 Nov 4.
How well do pre-school delay of gratification and life-course measures of self-regulation predict mid-life capital formation? We surveyed 113 participants of the 1967-1973 Bing pre-school studies on delay of gratification when they were in their late 40's. They reported 11 mid-life capital formation outcomes, including net worth, permanent income, absence of high-interest debt, forward-looking behaviors, and educational attainment. To address multiple hypothesis testing and our small sample, we pre-registered an analysis plan of well-powered tests. As predicted, a newly constructed and pre-registered measure derived from preschool delay of gratification does not predict the 11 capital formation variables (i.e., the sign-adjusted average correlation was 0.02). A pre-registered composite self-regulation index, combining preschool delay of gratification with survey measures of self-regulation collected at ages 17, 27, and 37, does predict 10 of the 11 capital formation variables in the expected direction, with an average correlation of 0.19. The inclusion of the preschool delay of gratification measure in this composite index does not affect the index's predictive power. We tested several hypothesized reasons that preschool delay of gratification does not have predictive power for our mid-life capital formation variables.
学前延迟满足和自我调节的人生历程测量对中年资本形成的预测效果如何？我们对1967年至1973年宾氏学前延迟满足研究中的113名参与者进行了调查，当时他们已近五十岁。他们报告了11项中年资本形成结果，包括净资产、固定收入、无高息债务、前瞻性行为和教育程度。为了解决多重假设检验和我们样本量小的问题，我们预先登记了一个功效强大的检验分析计划。正如预测的那样，一个新构建并预先登记的、源自学前延迟满足的测量指标并不能预测这11个资本形成变量（即符号调整后的平均相关性为0.02）。一个预先登记的综合自我调节指数，将学前延迟满足与在17岁、27岁和37岁时收集的自我调节调查测量指标相结合，确实在预期方向上预测了11个资本形成变量中的10个，平均相关性为0.19。在这个综合指数中纳入学前延迟满足测量指标并不会影响该指数的预测能力。我们检验了几个假设的原因，即学前延迟满足对我们的中年资本形成变量没有预测能力的原因。
