Khan Irfan, Hou Fujun
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing, 100081, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 May;28(18):23310-23322. doi: 10.1007/s11356-020-12005-2. Epub 2021 Jan 14.
International environmental agreements have multiplied over the last five decades. We examine the impact of multilateral environmental diplomacy on carbon dioxide (CO) emissions in the presence of capital formation, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth using the framework of the Environment Kuznets Curve (EKC) and data from the United States from 1980 to 2015. We developed a comprehensive empirical analysis using Zivot-Andrews structural break unit root tests. Co-integration analysis indicates long-run relationships of the variables. The results of the generalized linear models (GLMs) and robust least secure (ROBUSTLS) approach reveal that environmental diplomacy, capital formation, and economic growth deteriorate environmental quality in the long run, while renewable energy consumption improves it. These results support the EKC hypothesis for the United States and suggest that, in the early stages, increased environmental diplomacy stimulates CO emissions to a point, after which CO emissions start declining with further increases in international commitments and strong diplomatic relationships among countries. Policy implications for the United States are presented.
在过去的五十年里，国际环境协定成倍增加。我们利用环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）框架和美国1980年至2015年的数据，研究了在存在资本形成、可再生能源消费和经济增长的情况下多边环境外交对二氧化碳（CO）排放的影响。我们使用齐沃特 - 安德鲁斯结构断点单位根检验进行了全面的实证分析。协整分析表明了变量之间的长期关系。广义线性模型（GLMs）和稳健最小二乘法（ROBUSTLS）方法的结果显示，从长期来看，环境外交、资本形成和经济增长会恶化环境质量，而可再生能源消费则会改善环境质量。这些结果支持了美国的EKC假说，并表明在早期阶段，环境外交的增加会在一定程度上刺激CO排放，之后随着国际承诺的进一步增加以及国家间强有力外交关系的建立，CO排放开始下降。文中还提出了对美国的政策建议。
