International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology (icipe), P.O. Box 30772-00100, Nairobi, Kenya.
International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT) ICRAF House, United Nation, Avenue, Gigiri, Village Market, P. O. Box 1041, Nairobi, 00621, Kenya.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 14;11(1):1401. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-79553-y.
Stemborers (Busseola fusca, Sesamia calamistis and Chilo partellus), the fall armyworm (Spodoptera frugiperda) and associated parasitoids constitute an interacting system in maize fields in Kenya. This work aims at developing and evaluating models that represent the evolution of those interactions by applying system thinking and system dynamics approaches with its archetypes [causal loop diagram (CLD), reinforcing (R) and balancing (B)] to analyse the population of these multi-species systems. The software Vensim PLE 8.0.9 was used to implement the models and carry out the simulations of single- and multi-species systems. The results showed that when a single pest species with its associated parasitoids interact with the host plant, the species was able to establish and sustain by cyclical relationship between populations of the pest and the associated parasitoids. However, in multi- pest species systems, dominance of S. frugiperda and C. partellus over B. fusca and S. calamistis was observed, but without extinction. However, there was a likelihood for B. fusca being displaced by C. partellus. Overall, the models predict the co-existence of fall armyworm with stemborer species as an additional pest of maize in Africa that need to be considered henceforth in designing IPM strategies in maize.
在肯尼亚的玉米田中，钻蛀性昆虫（包括褐飞虱、草地贪夜蛾和二化螟）、秋黏虫（Spodoptera frugiperda）及其相关寄生蜂构成了一个相互作用的系统。本研究旨在通过应用系统思维和系统动力学方法及其原型（因果关系图（CLD）、增强（R）和平衡（B））来开发和评估模型，以分析这些多物种系统的种群，从而代表这些相互作用的演变。使用 Vensim PLE 8.0.9 软件来实现模型，并对单物种和多物种系统进行模拟。结果表明，当单一害虫物种及其相关寄生蜂与宿主植物相互作用时，通过害虫和相关寄生蜂种群之间的循环关系，该物种能够建立并维持。然而，在多害虫物种系统中，观察到 S. frugiperda 和 C. partellus 对 B. fusca 和 S. calamistis 的优势，但没有灭绝。然而，B. fusca 有可能被 C. partellus 取代。总体而言，模型预测了秋黏虫与钻蛀性昆虫物种的共存，这是非洲玉米的另一种害虫，需要在今后设计玉米 IPM 策略时加以考虑。
