Secure Food Systems Team, Department of Veterinary and Biomedical Sciences, University of Minnesota, Saint Paul, MN, USA.
Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science, Gulu University, Gulu, Uganda.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 15;11(1):1602. doi: 10.1038/s41598-021-81254-z.
Limiting spread of low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) during an outbreak is critical to reduce the negative impact on poultry producers and local economies. Mathematical models of disease transmission can support outbreak control efforts by estimating relevant epidemiological parameters. In this article, diagnostic testing data from each house on a premises infected during a LPAI H5N2 outbreak in the state of Minnesota in the United States in 2018 was used to estimate the time of virus introduction and adequate contact rate, which determines the rate of disease spread. A well-defined most likely time of virus introduction, and upper and lower 95% credibility intervals were estimated for each house. The length of the 95% credibility intervals ranged from 11 to 22 with a mean of 17 days. In some houses the contact rate estimates were also well-defined; however, the estimated upper 95% credibility interval bound for the contact rate was occasionally dependent on the upper bound of the prior distribution. The estimated modes ranged from 0.5 to 6.0 with a mean of 2.8 contacts per day. These estimates can be improved with early detection, increased testing of monitored premises, and combining the results of multiple barns that possess similar production systems.
在暴发期间限制低致病性禽流感（LPAI）的传播对于减少对家禽养殖者和当地经济的负面影响至关重要。疾病传播的数学模型可以通过估计相关的流行病学参数来支持暴发控制工作。在本文中，使用了美国明尼苏达州 2018 年 LPAI H5N2 暴发期间每个受感染畜舍的诊断检测数据来估计病毒引入的时间和足够的接触率，这决定了疾病的传播速度。为每个畜舍确定了明确的最可能的病毒引入时间以及 95%置信区间的上限和下限。95%置信区间的长度范围为 11 到 22 天，平均值为 17 天。在某些畜舍中，接触率的估计值也很明确；但是，接触率的估计 95%置信区间上限偶尔取决于先验分布的上限。估计的模式范围从 0.5 到 6.0，平均值为每天 2.8 次接触。通过早期检测、增加对监测畜舍的检测以及合并具有相似生产系统的多个畜舍的结果，可以改善这些估计。
