Department of Radiology, 1811Harvard Medical School, Waban, MA, USA.
J Med Screen. 2021 Jun;28(2):59-62. doi: 10.1177/0969141320986186. Epub 2021 Jan 17.
Despite overwhelming evidence of a major reduction in deaths, the debate about the efficacy of breast cancer screening has continued for over 50 years. The poor results in the Canadian National Breast Screening Studies (CNBSS) have been used to challenge the benefits shown by the other randomized, controlled trials. They continue to be used in assessing the value of breast cancer screening despite their unblinded allocation process, which first identified women with breast abnormalities and then assigned them on open lists allowing for nonrandom assignment, compromising the trials and rendering their results unreliable. There were, statistically significantly, more women with advanced cancers who were assigned to the screening arm in CNBSS1. The early results for CNBSS1 showed an excess of women dying in the screening arm, and an (otherwise inexplicable) greater than 90%, 5-year survival for the control women. The failure of random assignment also explains why the clinically evident cancers were larger in the screening arms than the cancers in the "usual care" arms, despite the fact that the screened women underwent very intense clinical breast examinations each year by highly skilled examiners. The claim that balanced demographic factors prove random assignment is also false. Nonrandom allocation of a hundred or more women with clinically evident abnormalities would have no detectable influence on the distribution of demographic factors. In summary, policy decisions about mammography should not be influenced by the results of the CNBSS.
尽管有大量证据表明乳腺癌筛查的死亡率显著降低,但关于其疗效的争论已经持续了 50 多年。加拿大国家乳腺癌筛查研究(CNBSS)的糟糕结果被用来质疑其他随机对照试验所显示的益处。尽管这些研究的分配过程是不盲的,首先确定了有乳腺异常的女性,然后在开放名单上对其进行分配,允许非随机分配,从而影响了试验结果的可靠性,但这些结果仍被用于评估乳腺癌筛查的价值。CNBSS1 中筛查组的晚期癌症患者数量明显更多。CNBSS1 的早期结果显示,筛查组中有更多的女性死亡,而对照组女性的 5 年生存率(否则无法解释)则超过 90%。随机分配的失败也解释了为什么在筛查组中,临床可见的癌症比“常规护理”组中的癌症更大,尽管接受筛查的女性每年都由高技能的检查者进行非常密集的临床乳房检查。声称平衡的人口统计学因素证明了随机分配也是错误的。一百多名有临床明显异常的女性的非随机分配对人口统计学因素的分布不会有任何可察觉的影响。总之,关于乳房 X 光检查的政策决策不应该受到 CNBSS 结果的影响。