Laboratory of Population Studies of Institute of Cardiology, Medical Academy, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Laboratory of Population Studies of Institute of Cardiology, Medical Academy, Lithuanian University of Health Sciences, Kaunas, Lithuania.
Public Health. 2021 Feb;191:3-10. doi: 10.1016/j.puhe.2020.11.024. Epub 2021 Jan 15.
The purpose of this study was to investigate changes in physical activity and the association of these changes with the risk of all-cause mortality and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD) among an adult and elderly Lithuanian urban population.
Prospective cohort study.
Data from four surveys are presented. In total, there were 2416 participants (1071 men and 1345 women) who took part in one of the initial three surveys in the framework of the Multinational Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease (MONICA) study since 1986 and also in the follow-up survey in 2006 (with follow-up over 15 years). Study participants were followed-up for mortality events from 2006 until 31 December 2017. The mean duration of the follow-up for endpoints period was 10.55 (standard deviation 2.33) years.
Over 15 years of follow-up, 50.9% of men and 56.7% of women were physically active at initial and follow-up surveys, and approximately 10.0% of respondents were physically inactive. Over this period, 22.8% of men and 24.8% of women increased their physical activity level, and 14.1% of men and 10.1% of women decreased their physical activity level. The findings from the Cox proportional hazards regression multivariable analysis showed that a decrease in physical activity level during the follow-up period was related to a higher risk for all-cause mortality and mortality from CVD risk in women (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.82, P = 0.039; and HR = 5.40, P = 0.014, respectively). In men, a clear association of physical inactivity was ascertained only to all-cause mortality risk and only for non-smokers (HR = 2.07, P = 0.013).
A decrease in physical activity levels in women is a strong predictor for all-cause mortality risk and mortality from CVD risk. Physical inactivity in male non-smokers is a strong predictor for all-cause mortality risk.
本研究旨在调查立陶宛城市成年和老年人群体中体力活动的变化，以及这些变化与全因死亡率和心血管疾病（CVD）死亡率之间的关系。
前瞻性队列研究。
本研究共纳入 2416 名参与者（1071 名男性和 1345 名女性），他们分别于 1986 年起参加了多国心血管疾病趋势和决定因素监测（MONICA）研究的前三次调查中的一次，以及 2006 年的随访调查（随访时间超过 15 年）。研究参与者从 2006 年开始进行死亡事件随访，直至 2017 年 12 月 31 日。终点随访期间的平均随访时间为 10.55 年（标准差 2.33）。
在 15 年的随访期间，50.9%的男性和 56.7%的女性在初次和随访调查时表现出体力活动，约 10.0%的受访者表现出体力不活跃。在此期间，22.8%的男性和 24.8%的女性增加了体力活动水平，而 14.1%的男性和 10.1%的女性降低了体力活动水平。多变量 Cox 比例风险回归分析结果表明，随访期间体力活动水平的下降与女性全因死亡率和 CVD 死亡率风险升高相关（风险比[HR] = 1.82，P = 0.039；HR = 5.40，P = 0.014）。在男性中，仅在非吸烟者中明确发现体力不活动与全因死亡率风险相关（HR = 2.07，P = 0.013）。
女性体力活动水平下降是全因死亡率风险和 CVD 死亡率风险的一个强有力预测因素。男性非吸烟者的体力不活动是全因死亡率风险的一个强有力预测因素。
