Ingersoll John G
ECOCORP, 1211 South Eads Street, Suite 803, Arlington, VA 22202, USA.
Diseases. 2021 Jan 16;9(1):9. doi: 10.3390/diseases9010009.
Three important observations derived from the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic could result in the development of novel approaches to deal with it and avoid or at least minimize the occurrence and impact of future outbreaks. First, the dramatic increase in pandemics in the past decade alone suggests that the current relationship of humans with the environment is quickly becoming unstable, with potentially catastrophic consequences. In order to reduce the toll in life and property, we would need to shift our emphasis from control of nature to a symbiosis with nature. This, then, can become the new framework for dealing effectively with environmental issues such as climate change, whereby properly applied medical science would provide the necessary impetus for action. Second, the existence of superspreaders of infection among populations in this pandemic requires that we develop objective tests, most likely of a genetic nature, to identify them rather than apply indiscriminate and draconian controls across the board. Not identifying superspreaders in a timely fashion could allow this pandemic to turn into a black swan event, with a catastrophic impact on society. Third, we need to refocus our efforts in dealing with this pandemic from the virus itself to the human hosts. An objective morbidity risk index can be developed such that most of us can go about our daily business without the fear of becoming seriously ill, while measures can be implemented to protect those who are most vulnerable to this virus. These observations point clearly to a need for a paradigm shift.
从当前的新冠疫情中得出的三个重要观察结果,可能会促使人们开发新的应对方法,以应对疫情并避免或至少尽量减少未来疫情爆发的发生及其影响。首先,仅在过去十年中,大流行病的急剧增加表明,当前人类与环境的关系正迅速变得不稳定,可能会带来灾难性后果。为了减少生命和财产损失,我们需要将重点从控制自然转向与自然共生。这样,就可以成为有效应对气候变化等环境问题的新框架,适当应用医学将为行动提供必要的动力。其次,在这次疫情中,人群中存在感染超级传播者,这就要求我们开发客观的检测方法,很可能是基因检测方法,来识别他们,而不是一概而论地实施不加区分且严厉的管控措施。不能及时识别超级传播者可能会使这次疫情演变成黑天鹅事件,给社会带来灾难性影响。第三,我们需要将应对这次疫情的努力重点从病毒本身转移到人类宿主身上。可以制定一个客观的发病风险指数,这样我们大多数人就可以在不担心患上重病的情况下开展日常工作,同时可以采取措施保护那些最易感染这种病毒的人。这些观察结果清楚地表明需要进行范式转变。