Tanzania Wildlife Management Authority, Morogoro, Tanzania.
Laboratório de Fitoecologia e Fitogeografia, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Botânica, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil.
PLoS One. 2021 Jan 20;16(1):e0238669. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0238669. eCollection 2021.
While the international pet trade and habitat destruction have been extensively discussed as major threats to the survival of the pancake tortoise (Malacochersus tornieri), the impact of climate change on the species remains unknown. In this study, we used species distribution modelling to predict the current and future distribution of pancake tortoises in Zambezian and Somalian biogeographical regions. We used 224 pancake tortoise occurrences obtained from Tanzania, Kenya and Zambia to estimate suitable and stable areas for the pancake tortoise in all countries present in these regions. We also used a protected area network to assess how many of the suitable and stable areas are protected for the conservation of this critically endangered species. Our model predicted the expansion of climatically suitable habitats for pancake tortoises from four countries and a total area of 90,668.75 km2 to ten countries in the future and an area of 343,459.60-401,179.70 km2. The model also showed that a more significant area of climatically suitable habitat for the species lies outside of the wildlife protected areas. Based on our results, we can predict that pancake tortoises may not suffer from habitat constriction. However, the species will continue to be at risk from the international pet trade, as most of the identified suitable habitats remain outside of protected areas. We suggest that efforts to conserve the pancake tortoise should not only focus on protected areas but also areas that are unprotected, as these comprise a large proportion of the suitable and stable habitats available following predicted future climate change.
虽然国际宠物贸易和栖息地破坏已被广泛讨论为威胁薄饼陆龟（Malacochersus tornieri）生存的主要因素，但气候变化对该物种的影响仍不清楚。在这项研究中，我们使用物种分布模型来预测赞比西和索马里生物地理区域内薄饼陆龟的当前和未来分布。我们使用了来自坦桑尼亚、肯尼亚和赞比亚的 224 个薄饼陆龟的发生地点来估计所有在这些地区的国家中，薄饼陆龟的适宜和稳定区域。我们还使用了一个保护区网络来评估有多少适宜和稳定的区域是为保护这种极度濒危物种而受到保护的。我们的模型预测，未来四年，来自四个国家的气候适宜的薄饼陆龟栖息地将从总面积 90668.75 平方公里扩大到十个国家，总面积为 343459.60-401179.70 平方公里。该模型还显示，该物种的气候适宜栖息地中有更大的一部分位于野生动物保护区之外。基于我们的结果，我们可以预测薄饼陆龟可能不会遭受栖息地收缩的影响。然而，该物种仍将继续面临来自国际宠物贸易的威胁，因为大多数确定的适宜栖息地仍在保护区之外。我们建议，保护薄饼陆龟的努力不仅应集中在保护区，还应集中在未受保护的地区，因为这些地区在预测未来气候变化后，是适宜和稳定栖息地的重要组成部分。
