Müller-Crepon Carl, Hunziker Philipp, Cederman Lars-Erik
Department of Politics and International Relations, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
Independent researcher, Zürich, Switzerland.
J Conflict Resolut. 2021 Feb;65(2-3):563-590. doi: 10.1177/0022002720963674. Epub 2020 Oct 6.
Weak state capacity is one of the most important explanations of civil conflict. Yet, current conceptualizations of state capacity typically focus only on the state while ignoring the relational nature of armed conflict. We argue that opportunities for conflict arise where relational state capacity is low, that is, where the state has less control over its subjects than its potential challengers. This occurs in ethnic groups that are poorly accessible from the state capital, but are internally highly interconnected. To test this argument, we digitize detailed African road maps and convert them into a road atlas akin to Google Maps. We measure the accessibility and internal connectedness of groups via travel times obtained from this atlas and simulate road networks for an instrumental variable design. Our findings suggest that low relational state capacity increases the risk of armed conflict in Africa.
国家能力薄弱是国内冲突最重要的解释之一。然而，当前对国家能力的概念化通常只关注国家，而忽视了武装冲突的关系本质。我们认为，冲突的机会出现在关系性国家能力较低的地方，也就是说，国家对其臣民的控制少于其潜在挑战者的地方。这发生在从国家首都难以进入但内部高度互联的族群中。为了验证这一论点，我们将详细的非洲公路地图数字化，并将其转换为类似于谷歌地图的公路地图集。我们通过从该地图集获得的出行时间来衡量族群的可达性和内部连通性，并为工具变量设计模拟道路网络。我们的研究结果表明，关系性国家能力低下会增加非洲武装冲突的风险。
