Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, South Korea.
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, South Korea.
Sci Total Environ. 2021 May 15;769:144820. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144820. Epub 2021 Jan 14.
Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources from the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), especially for irrigation. An evaluation framework was developed and applied in this study to understand the variability in surface water availability to agricultural and domestic sectors across various future climate and socioeconomic pathways in five catchments within the UIB (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, and Shyoke). A planning tool named Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) was used to understand the dynamics of past and future water demands for multiple future scenarios. We combined three different climate scenarios (representative concentration pathways) with socioeconomic scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways) of economic development and population and local agricultural land development pathways. The results indicate that the external driving forces of climate change and socioeconomic growth will cause a discrepancy between the supply and demand of water resources in regions with higher socioeconomic growth, particularly those with agricultural development as the dominant external factor. Among the five catchments within the UIB, Astore and Gilgit face a water shortfall in all future scenarios, whereas Shyoke will encounter water deficiencies only in the case of agricultural land development. We also demonstrated that the impact of climate change is markedly different in Astore and Gilgit. Over Astore, the impact of precipitation will control the unmet water demands by increasing winter streamflow whereas over Gilgit non-climatic factors, such as population and agricultural growth, will control future unmet water demands.
巴基斯坦高度依赖于上印度河流域（UIB）山区的水资源，特别是用于灌溉。本研究开发并应用了一个评估框架，以了解在 UIB 五个集水区（阿斯特、吉尔吉特、罕萨、什约克和什噶尔）中，不同未来气候和社会经济路径下，农业和家庭部门地表水供应的变化情况。名为 Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) 的规划工具用于了解过去和未来不同未来情景下的多种未来水需求的动态。我们将三种不同的气候情景（代表性浓度途径）与经济发展和人口的社会经济情景（共同社会经济途径）以及当地农业土地发展途径相结合。结果表明，气候变化和社会经济增长的外部驱动力将导致高社会经济增长地区的水资源供需之间出现差异，特别是那些以农业发展为主要外部因素的地区。在上印度河流域的五个集水区中，阿斯特和吉尔吉特在所有未来情景下都面临水资源短缺，而什约克只有在农业土地开发的情况下才会出现水资源短缺。我们还表明，气候变化对阿斯特和吉尔吉特的影响明显不同。在阿斯特，降水的影响将通过增加冬季径流量来控制未满足的水需求，而在吉尔吉特，非气候因素，如人口和农业增长，将控制未来未满足的水需求。
