Department of Business Administration, Eskisehir Osmangazi University, Meselik Campus, 26040, Eskisehir, Turkey.
SKK Graduate School of Business, Sungkyunkwan University, 25-2, Sungkyunkwan-ro, Jongro-gu, Seoul, 03063, South Korea.
Sci Rep. 2021 Jan 25;11(1):2145. doi: 10.1038/s41598-020-78760-x.
The coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak has killed over a million people since its emergence in late 2019. However, there has been substantial variability in the policies and intensity of diagnostic efforts between countries. In this paper, we quantitatively evaluate the association between national contact tracing policies and case fatality rates of COVID-19 in 138 countries. Our regression analyses indicate that countries that implement comprehensive contact tracing have significantly lower case fatality rates. This association of contact tracing policy and case fatality rates is robust in our longitudinal regression models, even after controlling for the number of tests conducted and non-pharmaceutical control measures adopted by governments. Our results suggest that comprehensive contact tracing is instrumental not only to curtailing transmission but also to reducing case fatality rates. Contact tracing achieves the early detection and isolation of secondary cases which are particularly important given that the peak in infectiousness occurs during the presymptomatic phase. The early detection achieved by contact tracing accelerates the rate at which infected individuals receive medical care they need to maximize their chance of recovery. In addition, the combination of reduced transmission and more rapid recovery diminishes the burden on the healthcare system which in turn ensures that the resources remain available for individuals who do become infected.
自 2019 年底冠状病毒病（COVID-19）爆发以来，已导致超过 100 万人死亡。然而，各国之间的政策和诊断力度存在很大差异。在本文中，我们定量评估了 138 个国家的国家接触者追踪政策与 COVID-19 病死率之间的关系。我们的回归分析表明，实施全面接触者追踪的国家 COVID-19 的病死率显著降低。即使在控制了检测数量和政府采取的非药物控制措施后，这种接触者追踪政策和病死率之间的关联在我们的纵向回归模型中仍然具有稳健性。我们的研究结果表明，全面接触者追踪不仅有助于遏制传播，还有助于降低病死率。接触者追踪可以实现对二次病例的早期发现和隔离，鉴于传染性峰值出现在无症状期，这一点尤其重要。接触者追踪实现了对感染个体的早期检测，从而为他们提供了获得所需医疗护理的机会，最大限度地提高了他们康复的机会。此外，减少传播和更快恢复的结合减轻了医疗保健系统的负担，从而确保资源仍然可用于那些确实感染的个体。
