文献检索文档翻译深度研究
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件
邀请有礼套餐&价格历史记录

新学期,新优惠

限时优惠:9月1日-9月22日

30天高级会员仅需29元

1天体验卡首发特惠仅需5.99元

了解详情
不再提醒
插件&应用
Suppr Zotero 插件Zotero 插件浏览器插件Mac 客户端Windows 客户端微信小程序
高级版
套餐订阅购买积分包
AI 工具
文献检索文档翻译深度研究
关于我们
关于 Suppr公司介绍联系我们用户协议隐私条款
关注我们

Suppr 超能文献

核心技术专利:CN118964589B侵权必究
粤ICP备2023148730 号-1Suppr @ 2025

静默传播对控制 COVID-19 疫情的影响。

The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks.

机构信息

Agent-Based Modelling Laboratory, York University, Toronto, ON M3J 1P3, Canada.

Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven, CT 06510.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 28;117(30):17513-17515. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2008373117. Epub 2020 Jul 6.


DOI:10.1073/pnas.2008373117
PMID:32632012
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7395516/
Abstract

Since the emergence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), unprecedented movement restrictions and social distancing measures have been implemented worldwide. The socioeconomic repercussions have fueled calls to lift these measures. In the absence of population-wide restrictions, isolation of infected individuals is key to curtailing transmission. However, the effectiveness of symptom-based isolation in preventing a resurgence depends on the extent of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission. We evaluate the contribution of presymptomatic and asymptomatic transmission based on recent individual-level data regarding infectiousness prior to symptom onset and the asymptomatic proportion among all infections. We found that the majority of incidences may be attributable to silent transmission from a combination of the presymptomatic stage and asymptomatic infections. Consequently, even if all symptomatic cases are isolated, a vast outbreak may nonetheless unfold. We further quantified the effect of isolating silent infections in addition to symptomatic cases, finding that over one-third of silent infections must be isolated to suppress a future outbreak below 1% of the population. Our results indicate that symptom-based isolation must be supplemented by rapid contact tracing and testing that identifies asymptomatic and presymptomatic cases, in order to safely lift current restrictions and minimize the risk of resurgence.

摘要

自 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)出现以来,全球范围内实施了前所未有的行动限制和社会距离措施。这些社会经济影响引发了取消这些措施的呼声。在没有全民限制的情况下,隔离感染者是遏制传播的关键。然而,基于症状的隔离在预防疫情复发方面的有效性取决于无症状和有症状传播的程度。我们根据最近关于发病前传染性和所有感染中无症状比例的个体水平数据,评估了无症状和有症状传播的贡献。我们发现,大多数病例可能是由于无症状感染和潜伏期感染的混合而导致的隐性传播。因此,即使所有有症状的病例都被隔离,仍可能爆发大规模疫情。我们进一步量化了除了隔离有症状病例之外,隔离隐性感染的效果,发现必须隔离超过三分之一的隐性感染,才能将未来的疫情爆发控制在人口的 1%以下。我们的研究结果表明,基于症状的隔离必须辅以快速的接触者追踪和检测,以识别无症状和有症状的病例,从而安全地取消当前的限制措施,并最大限度地降低疫情复发的风险。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952b/7395516/29af7ed08fd9/pnas.2008373117fig01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952b/7395516/29af7ed08fd9/pnas.2008373117fig01.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/952b/7395516/29af7ed08fd9/pnas.2008373117fig01.jpg

相似文献

[1]
The implications of silent transmission for the control of COVID-19 outbreaks.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020-7-6

[2]
Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020-6-17

[3]
Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020-6-16

[4]
Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset.

JAMA Intern Med. 2020-9-1

[5]
Projected effects of nonpharmaceutical public health interventions to prevent resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in Canada.

CMAJ. 2020-8-9

[6]
Individual quarantine versus active monitoring of contacts for the mitigation of COVID-19: a modelling study.

Lancet Infect Dis. 2020-5-20

[7]
Clinical laboratory and dispersion pattern of COVID-19 in a family cluster in the social-distancing period.

J Infect Dev Ctries. 2020-9-30

[8]
Establishing prison-led contact tracing to prevent outbreaks of COVID-19 in prisons in Ireland.

J Public Health (Oxf). 2020-8-18

[9]
A preliminary study on contact tracing & transmission chain in a cluster of 17 cases of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection in Basti, Uttar Pradesh, India.

Indian J Med Res.

[10]
Epidemiology of COVID-19 Outbreak in Japan, from January-March 2020.

Jpn J Infect Dis. 2020-9-24

引用本文的文献

[1]
Eco-physiological and growth responses of two halophytes to saline irrigation and soil amendments in arid conditions.

BMC Plant Biol. 2025-8-28

[2]
Modeling the impact of hospitalization-induced behavioral changes on the spread of COVID-19 in New York City.

Infect Dis Model. 2025-5-27

[3]
An agent-based model of COVID- 19 in the food industry for assessing public health and economic impacts of infection control strategies.

Sci Rep. 2025-4-24

[4]
Influence of Soil Amendment Application on Growth and Yield of Fisch. et Mey and L. Under Saline Conditions in Dry-Land Regions.

Plants (Basel). 2025-3-9

[5]
Significance of supervision sampling in control of communicable respiratory disease simulated by a new model during different stages of the disease.

Sci Rep. 2025-1-30

[6]
Ideological Consistency and News Sharing as Predictors of Masking Among College Students.

Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2024-12-11

[7]
Prevention and control of infectious disease transmission in subways: an improved susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model.

Front Public Health. 2024-12-12

[8]
Systematic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 reveals dynamics of variant mutagenesis and transmission in a large urban population.

Nat Commun. 2024-12-30

[9]
Routine immunization against and type B and antibiotic consumption in India: a dynamic modeling analysis.

Lancet Reg Health Southeast Asia. 2024-10-16

[10]
A proactive/reactive mass screening approach with uncertain symptomatic cases.

PLoS Comput Biol. 2024-8

本文引用的文献

[1]
Spread and dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy: Effects of emergency containment measures.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020-4-23

[2]
Temporal dynamics in viral shedding and transmissibility of COVID-19.

Nat Med. 2020-4-15

[3]
Presymptomatic Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 - Singapore, January 23-March 16, 2020.

MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2020-4-10

[4]
Projecting demand for critical care beds during COVID-19 outbreaks in Canada.

CMAJ. 2020-4-8

[5]
Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020-4-3

[6]
Quantifying SARS-CoV-2 transmission suggests epidemic control with digital contact tracing.

Science. 2020-3-31

[7]
Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases.

Emerg Infect Dis. 2020-6-17

[8]
Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020.

Euro Surveill. 2020-3

[9]
Substantial undocumented infection facilitates the rapid dissemination of novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2).

Science. 2020-3-16

[10]
Estimation of the asymptomatic ratio of novel coronavirus infections (COVID-19).

Int J Infect Dis. 2020-5

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

推荐工具

医学文档翻译智能文献检索