大流行病是否遵循金融市场的艾略特波浪理论？
Do Pandemics Obey the Elliott Wave Principle of Financial Markets?
作者信息
Dogra Prashant, Koay Eugene J, Wang Zhihui, Vahidy Farhaan S, Ferrari Mauro, Pasqualini Renata, Arap Wadih, Boom Marc L, Sostman H Dirk, Cristini Vittorio
机构信息
Mathematics in Medicine Program, Houston Methodist Research Institute, Houston, Texas, USA.
Department of Gastrointestinal Radiation Oncology, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, TX, USA.
出版信息
medRxiv. 2021 Jan 22:2021.01.21.21250273. doi: 10.1101/2021.01.21.21250273.
The Elliott Wave principle is a time-honored, oft-used method for predicting variations in the financial markets. It is based on the notion that human emotions drive financial decisions. In the fight against COVID-19, human emotions are similarly decisive, for instance in that they determine one's willingness to be vaccinated, and/or to follow preventive measures including the wearing of masks, the application of social distancing protocols, and frequent handwashing. On this basis, we postulated that the Elliott Wave Principle may similarly be used to predict the future evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic. We demonstrated that this method reproduces the data pattern especially well for USA (daily new cases). Potential scenarios were then extrapolated, from the best-case corresponding to a rapid, full vaccination of the population, to the utterly disastrous case of slow vaccination, and poor adherence to preventive protocols.
艾略特波浪理论是一种历史悠久、常用的预测金融市场变化的方法。它基于人类情绪驱动金融决策这一概念。在抗击新冠疫情的过程中，人类情绪同样具有决定性作用，例如，它们决定了一个人接种疫苗的意愿，和/或采取预防措施的意愿，包括佩戴口罩、遵守社交距离规定以及勤洗手。在此基础上，我们推测艾略特波浪理论可能同样可用于预测新冠疫情的未来演变。我们证明，这种方法对于美国（每日新增病例）的数据模式拟合得特别好。然后，我们推断了各种潜在情景，从对应于全体人口快速、全面接种疫苗的最佳情况，到接种疫苗缓慢且对预防规定遵守不佳的极其灾难性的情况。
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