Equipe Systèmes Complexes et Interactions, Ecole Centrale Casablanca, Casablanca, Morocco.
Laboratoire d'Analyse Nonlinéaire et Mathématiques Appliquées, University of Tlemcen, Tlemcen, Algeria.
Front Public Health. 2021 Jan 12;8:559693. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2020.559693. eCollection 2020.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China in 2019, has spread throughout the world and has since then been declared a pandemic. As a result, COVID-19 has caused a major threat to global public health. In this paper, we use mathematical modeling to analyze the reported data of COVID-19 cases in Vietnam and study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions. To achieve this, two models are used to describe the transmission dynamics of COVID-19. The first model belongs to the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) type and is used to compute the basic reproduction number. The second model adopts a multi-scale approach which explicitly integrates the movement of each individual. Numerical simulations are conducted to quantify the effects of social distancing measures on the spread of COVID-19 in urban areas of Vietnam. Both models show that the adoption of relaxed social distancing measures reduces the number of infected cases but does not shorten the duration of the epidemic waves. Whereas, more strict measures would lead to the containment of each epidemic wave in one and a half months.
2019 年，新型冠状病毒病（COVID-19）在中国武汉爆发，现已蔓延至全球，并已被宣布为大流行。因此，COVID-19 对全球公共卫生构成了重大威胁。在本文中，我们使用数学模型分析越南报告的 COVID-19 病例数据，并研究非药物干预措施的影响。为此，我们使用了两种模型来描述 COVID-19 的传播动态。第一种模型属于易感-暴露-感染-恢复（SEIR）类型，用于计算基本繁殖数。第二种模型采用多尺度方法，明确整合了每个个体的运动。进行数值模拟以量化社会隔离措施对越南城市地区 COVID-19 传播的影响。这两种模型都表明，放宽社会隔离措施会减少感染病例的数量，但不会缩短疫情波的持续时间。而更严格的措施将导致每个疫情波在一个半月内得到控制。
