Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, Maryland (S.A.L., K.H.G., Q.B., F.K.J., Q.Z., H.R.M., A.S.A., J.L.).
School of Public Health and Health Sciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts, and Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany (N.G.R.).
Ann Intern Med. 2020 May 5;172(9):577-582. doi: 10.7326/M20-0504. Epub 2020 Mar 10.
A novel human coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), was identified in China in December 2019. There is limited support for many of its key epidemiologic features, including the incubation period for clinical disease (coronavirus disease 2019 [COVID-19]), which has important implications for surveillance and control activities.
To estimate the length of the incubation period of COVID-19 and describe its public health implications.
Pooled analysis of confirmed COVID-19 cases reported between 4 January 2020 and 24 February 2020.
News reports and press releases from 50 provinces, regions, and countries outside Wuhan, Hubei province, China.
Persons with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection outside Hubei province, China.
Patient demographic characteristics and dates and times of possible exposure, symptom onset, fever onset, and hospitalization.
There were 181 confirmed cases with identifiable exposure and symptom onset windows to estimate the incubation period of COVID-19. The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.
Publicly reported cases may overrepresent severe cases, the incubation period for which may differ from that of mild cases.
This work provides additional evidence for a median incubation period for COVID-19 of approximately 5 days, similar to SARS. Our results support current proposals for the length of quarantine or active monitoring of persons potentially exposed to SARS-CoV-2, although longer monitoring periods might be justified in extreme cases.
U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, National Institute of General Medical Sciences, and Alexander von Humboldt Foundation.
一种新型人类冠状病毒，严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒 2（SARS-CoV-2）于 2019 年 12 月在中国被发现。其许多关键流行病学特征的支持有限，包括临床疾病（2019 年冠状病毒病[COVID-19]）的潜伏期，这对监测和控制活动具有重要意义。
估计 COVID-19 的潜伏期，并描述其公共卫生意义。
对 2020 年 1 月 4 日至 2 月 24 日期间报告的确诊 COVID-19 病例进行汇总分析。
中国湖北省武汉市以外的 50 个省、地区和国家的新闻报道和新闻稿。
中国湖北省以外确诊 SARS-CoV-2 感染的人。
患者人口统计学特征以及可能暴露、症状出现、发热出现和住院的时间和日期。
有 181 例确诊病例具有可识别的暴露和症状发作窗口，可用于估计 COVID-19 的潜伏期。潜伏期中位数估计为 5.1 天（95%CI，4.5 至 5.8 天），97.5%出现症状的人将在感染后 11.5 天（CI，8.2 至 15.6 天）内出现症状。这些估计表明，在保守假设下，在主动监测或检疫 14 天后，每 10000 例病例中就会有 101 例（99%百分位，482 例）出现症状。
公开报告的病例可能过度代表重症病例，其潜伏期可能与轻症病例不同。
这项工作为 COVID-19 的潜伏期约为 5 天提供了额外证据，与 SARS 相似。我们的结果支持目前对可能接触 SARS-CoV-2 的人进行检疫或主动监测的时间长度建议，尽管在极端情况下可能需要更长的监测时间。
美国疾病控制与预防中心、国家过敏和传染病研究所、国家普通医学科学研究所和亚历山大·冯·洪堡基金会。
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