LAMAI, Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Sciences and Technologies, Cadi Ayyad University, Marrakesh, Morocco.
Centrale Casablanca, Complex Systems and Interactions Research Center, Ville Verte, Bouskoura, Morocco.
Front Public Health. 2023 Jul 28;11:1188732. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.1188732. eCollection 2023.
During infectious disease outbreaks, some infected individuals may spread the disease widely and amplify risks in the community. People whose daily activities bring them in close proximity to many others can unknowingly become . The use of contact tracking based on social networks, GPS, or mobile tracking data can help to identify superspreaders and break the chain of transmission. We propose a model that aims at providing insight into risk factors of superspreading events. Here, we use a social force model to estimate the superspreading potential of individuals walking in a bidirectional corridor. First, we applied the model to identify parameters that favor exposure to an infectious person in scattered crowds. We find that low walking speed and high body mass both increase the expected number of close exposures. Panic events exacerbate the risks while social distancing reduces both the number and duration of close encounters. Further, in dense crowds, pedestrians interact more and cannot easily maintain the social distance between them. The number of exposures increases with the density of person in the corridor. The study of movements reveals that individuals walking toward the center of the corridor tend to rotate and zigzag more than those walking along the edges, and thus have higher risks of superspreading. The corridor model can be applied to designing risk reduction measures for specific high volume venues, including transit stations, stadiums, and schools.
在传染病爆发期间,一些感染者可能会广泛传播疾病,并在社区中放大风险。那些日常活动使他们与许多人密切接触的人可能会不知不觉地成为超级传播者。利用基于社交网络、GPS 或移动追踪数据的接触者追踪,可以帮助识别超级传播者并阻断传播链。我们提出了一个旨在深入了解超级传播事件风险因素的模型。在这里,我们使用社会力模型来估计在双向走廊中行走的个体的超级传播潜力。首先,我们应用该模型来确定有利于在分散人群中接触感染个体的参数。我们发现,低步行速度和高体重都会增加近距离接触的预期次数。恐慌事件会加剧风险,而社交距离的保持则会减少近距离接触的次数和持续时间。此外,在密集的人群中,行人和他人的互动更多,他们彼此之间很难保持社交距离。暴露人数随着走廊中人员密度的增加而增加。对运动的研究表明,与沿着边缘行走的人相比,朝着走廊中心行走的人更容易旋转和曲折,因此他们有更高的超级传播风险。走廊模型可用于为特定大容量场所设计降低风险的措施,包括交通枢纽、体育场和学校。