Cupples L A, D'Agostino R B, Anderson K, Kannel W B
Boston University, School of Public Health, Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Massachusetts 02118.
Stat Med. 1988 Jan-Feb;7(1-2):205-22. doi: 10.1002/sim.4780070122.
The purpose of this paper is to indicate how repeated measures on risk factors have been employed in the prediction of the development of disease in the Framingham Heart Study. Since these measures vary over time, the method accounts for time dependent covariates. The technique is a generalized person-years approach in that it treats each observation interval (of equal length) as a mini-follow-up study in which the current risk factor measurements are employed to predict an event in the interval. Observations over multiple intervals are pooled into a single sample to predict the short term risk of an event. This approach is compared to the long-term prediction of disease which utilizes only the baseline measurements and ignores subsequent repeated measures on the risk factors.
本文的目的是说明在弗雷明汉心脏研究中，如何运用对风险因素的重复测量来预测疾病的发展。由于这些测量值随时间变化，该方法考虑了随时间变化的协变量。该技术是一种广义人年方法，它将每个（等长的）观察间隔视为一项小型随访研究，其中利用当前的风险因素测量值来预测该间隔内的事件。将多个间隔的观察结果汇总到一个样本中，以预测事件的短期风险。将这种方法与仅利用基线测量值而忽略随后对风险因素的重复测量的疾病长期预测方法进行了比较。
