Carrier models for the simulation of Hodgkin's disease: a review with some extensions.

Epidemiologists have unearthed a good deal of both anecdotal and statistical evidence to suggest that Hodgkin's disease might be a transmissible entity. This paper critically reviews those findings which have led to the building of a single-region carrier model capable of making deterministic simulations for the temporal incidence of Hodgkin's disease. The results of fitting this model to the monthly incidence of the disease in Greater Manchester between 1962 and 1976 are discussed in relation to the plausibility of the equilibria associated with the more realistic solutions. In the light of this evaluation, the specification of the model is extended to include multi-region settings with more complex infective mechanisms. Finally, the improvements that accrue from adopting a stochastic modelling style are outlined.