Correlates of blood pressure change in middle-aged male mild hypertensives: results from the untreated control group in the Oslo hypertension trial. The Oslo Study.

The never-treated control group in the Oslo Study hypertension trial of middle-aged men 40-49 years old at entry (n = 379) was studied with respect to five-year change in blood pressure and its correlates. The study began in 1972 and ended in 1979, and each patient was followed for five years. Both baseline and rate of change of correlates were analyzed as independent variables versus rate of change in blood pressure as the dependent variable. Rate of change in serum triglycerides were found to be the strongest correlate of rate of change in blood pressure in this population of healthy mild hypertensives. In addition, rate of change in serum cholesterol and body weight made significant contributions in some analyses, but to a lower degree than did rate of change in triglycerides. The model predicts a substantial decrease in blood pressure if lipids and body weight are reduced. Rate of change in sodium, uric acid, and chloride concentrations were also associated with blood pressure change, but total degree of explanation of all explaining variables only accounted for 11-15% of total variation in annual blood pressure change.