Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais, Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil.
Int J Biometeorol. 2021 Jul;65(7):1001-1013. doi: 10.1007/s00484-021-02081-5. Epub 2021 Feb 8.
The influence of climate conditions in the agricultural environment is important in evapotranspiration, water availability for plants and roots, and other processes. This research focuses on two aspects: (1) the effects of climate change on the occurrence of extreme events that may affect agricultural processes in a region in Illinois (USA), and (2) the effects of climate change on the soil water dynamics in a corn crop. Different climate scenarios developed by the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace, using a climate model with medium resolution-IPSL(CM5MR), provided input to simulate soil water dynamics in two fields with different drainage system layouts. The Hydrus model simulated surface flux and runoff. Results indicate that the variation of precipitation and temperature in the future may increase extreme events, representing a risk for agriculture. Hydrus simulations indicate different results accordingly to the drainage layout, suggesting that it may be necessary to make adjustments in drainage systems in the future. In general, surface flux and runoff will increase over time, and these changes are more related to extreme events than average values. Extreme event indices show vulnerability in agriculture and will be reflected in changes in the soil water dynamics, and may increase the climatic risk of corn production.
农业环境中的气候条件对蒸散、植物和根系的水分可用性以及其他过程有重要影响。本研究主要关注两个方面：（1）气候变化对可能影响伊利诺伊州（美国）一个地区农业进程的极端事件发生的影响；（2）气候变化对玉米作物土壤水分动态的影响。使用具有中分辨率的气候模式（IPSL(CM5MR)），由法国皮埃尔-西蒙·拉普拉斯研究所开发的不同气候情景为模拟具有不同排水系统布局的两个田地的土壤水分动态提供了输入。Hydrus 模型模拟了地表通量和径流量。结果表明，未来降水和温度的变化可能会增加极端事件，对农业构成风险。Hydrus 模拟结果根据排水布局而有所不同，这表明未来可能需要对排水系统进行调整。总的来说，地表通量和径流量会随着时间的推移而增加，这些变化与极端事件而非平均值的关系更为密切。极端事件指数表明农业存在脆弱性，将反映在土壤水分动态的变化中，并可能增加玉米生产的气候风险。
