da Silva Tavares Priscila, Acosta Ricardo, Nobre Paulo, Resende Nicole Costa, Chou Sin Chan, de Arruda Lyra André
National Institute for Space Research (INPE), Rod Pres Dutra Km 39, Cachoeira Paulista -SP, Brazil.
Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Göttingen, Germany.
Reg Environ Change. 2023;23(1):40. doi: 10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1. Epub 2023 Feb 16.
This work aimed to evaluate changes in water balance components (precipitation, evapotranspiration, and water availability) and precipitation extremes projected under global warming levels (GWLs) of 1.5 °C and 2 °C, in Brazil. An ensemble of eight twenty-first-century projections with the Eta Regional Climate Model and their driving Global Climate Models (CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, MIROC5, and BESM) were used. Projections of two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, considered intermediate and high concentration, respectively, were used. The results indicate that the RCP8.5 scenario under 2 °C GWL is likely to have a higher impact on the water balance components, amplifying trends in drier conditions and increasing the number of consecutive dry days in some regions of Brazil, particularly in the North and Northeast regions. On the other hand, the projections indicate the opposite sign for the South region, with trends toward wetter conditions and significant increases in extreme rainfall. The 0.5 °C difference between the GWLs contributes to intensifying reductions (increases) from 4 to 7% in water availability, mainly in the North-Northeast (South) regions. The projected changes could have serious consequences, such as increases in the number of drought events in hydrographic regions of the Northeast region of Brazil and increases in flood events in the South of the country. The results here presented can contribute to the formulation of adaptive planning strategies aimed at ensuring Brazil's water security towards climate change.
The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1.
本研究旨在评估巴西在全球变暖水平（GWL）为1.5°C和2°C时，水平衡组成部分（降水、蒸散和水资源可利用量）的变化以及极端降水情况。使用了由Eta区域气候模型及其驱动的全球气候模型（CanESM2、HadGEM2-ES、MIROC5和BESM）生成的8个21世纪预测集合。采用了两种代表性浓度路径情景（RCP）的预测结果，RCP4.5和RCP8.5分别代表中等和高浓度情景。结果表明，在2°C的GWL下，RCP8.5情景可能对水平衡组成部分产生更大影响，加剧干旱状况的趋势，并增加巴西某些地区，特别是北部和东北部地区连续干旱天数。另一方面，预测显示南部地区情况相反，呈现变湿趋势且极端降雨显著增加。GWL之间0.5°C的差异导致水资源可利用量减少（增加）幅度从4%至7%加剧，主要集中在北部-东北部（南部）地区。预测的变化可能会带来严重后果，如巴西东北部水文区域干旱事件数量增加以及该国南部洪水事件增加。本文呈现的结果有助于制定适应性规划策略，以确保巴西应对气候变化的水资源安全。
在线版本包含可在10.1007/s10113-023-02042-1获取的补充材料。
