Menotti A, Mariotti S, Seccareccia S, Giampaoli S
Laboratory of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Istituto Superiore di Sanità, Rome, Italy.
Eur J Epidemiol. 1988 Mar;4(1):60-7. doi: 10.1007/BF00152694.
Twelve risk factors previously identified as predictors of all causes of death in a 25-year follow-up of a sample of 1530 men aged 40-59 at entry, have been tested as predictors of specific causes of death. They were age (AGE), mean blood pressure (MBP), cigarette smoking (CIG), forced expiratory volume (FEV), arm circumference (ARM), father-life status (FHAS), mother-life status (MHOS), shoulder-pelvis ratio (SPR), vital capacity (VC), arcus senilis (ARCS), serum cholesterol (CHOL) and xantelasma (XANT). Using the proportional hazards model and considering coronary heart diseases, strokes, cancers, violent deaths, and other causes as end-points, AGE and MBP were significant predictors for all conditions, including violent deaths. CIG predicted coronary heart disease, stroke and cancer; FEV, VC, and ARM were protective for all end-points but significant only for a few of them. FHAS and MHOS were positively associated with all end-points but significant only for a few of them. ARCS and XANT were predictive for only a few conditions and, surprisingly, XANT was a significant risk factor for cancer. Finally CHOL was specifically predictive only for coronary heart disease.
在对1530名年龄在40 - 59岁之间的男性样本进行的25年随访中，先前确定的12个全因死亡预测风险因素，已被作为特定死因的预测因素进行了测试。这些因素包括年龄（AGE）、平均血压（MBP）、吸烟（CIG）、用力呼气量（FEV）、上臂围（ARM）、父亲生存状况（FHAS）、母亲生存状况（MHOS）、肩臀比（SPR）、肺活量（VC）、角膜弓（ARCS）、血清胆固醇（CHOL）和睑黄瘤（XANT）。使用比例风险模型，并将冠心病、中风、癌症、暴力死亡和其他原因作为终点，年龄和平均血压是所有情况的显著预测因素，包括暴力死亡。吸烟可预测冠心病、中风和癌症；用力呼气量、肺活量和上臂围对所有终点都有保护作用，但仅对其中一些有显著意义。父亲生存状况和母亲生存状况与所有终点呈正相关，但仅对其中一些有显著意义。角膜弓和睑黄瘤仅对少数情况有预测性，令人惊讶的是，睑黄瘤是癌症的一个显著风险因素。最后，血清胆固醇仅对冠心病有特异性预测作用。
