Li Xue, Sha Jian, Wang Zhong-Liang
Tianjin Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Environment, Tianjin Normal University, Tianjin, 300387, China.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(23):29755-29772. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12704-4. Epub 2021 Feb 10.
Although El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been widely confirmed to have significant impacts on climate change in Asia, it is unknown whether the climate change in the Yangtze River Basin (YTR basin) is related to the operation of the Three Gorges Reservoir, which is the world's largest hydropower station. In this study, we used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) as an indicator of climate change and found that the mutation period of the YTR basin was 2003-2006 based on three mutation tests. By analyzing the trends of the SPEI and five related meteorological factors before and after 2003, it was found that the construction of the Three Gorges Reservoir increased the relative humidity and provided a more humid climate for the downstream basin. The relationships between drought events and ENSO and the water level of the reservoir indicated that the basin was more prone to drought in El Niño years and the Three Gorges Reservoir could alleviate agricultural drought in the downstream basin. The spatial impacts of the Three Gorges Reservoir on regional climate change were more pronounced, while the impact of ENSO could not be reflected at the station scale.
尽管厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)已被广泛证实对亚洲气候变化有重大影响,但长江流域(YTR流域)的气候变化是否与世界上最大的水电站三峡水库的运行有关尚不清楚。在本研究中,我们使用标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)作为气候变化的指标,并基于三项突变检验发现YTR流域的突变期为2003 - 2006年。通过分析2003年前后SPEI及五个相关气象因子的趋势,发现三峡水库的建设增加了相对湿度,为下游流域提供了更湿润的气候。干旱事件与ENSO及水库水位之间的关系表明,该流域在厄尔尼诺年更容易发生干旱,三峡水库可以缓解下游流域的农业干旱。三峡水库对区域气候变化的空间影响更为显著,而ENSO的影响在站点尺度上无法体现。