Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, Valencia, ES 46022, Spain.
Research Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València, Camino de Vera, s/n, Valencia, ES 46022, Spain.
Sci Total Environ. 2018 Dec 1;643:193-207. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.160. Epub 2018 Jun 21.
El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most determining climate pattern in the tropics of the Pacific coast of America that regulate flood and drought periods. Over the last decades, Ecuador has incurred in significant economic losses due to drought events, around 4% of the GDP, mainly in the agricultural and livestock sectors and the hydropower generation. The use of Drought Indicators and the Early Drought Detection can contribute to reduce the impacts of these events. A drought forecasting system, based on ENSO and Drought Indicators, is presented to determine the possibility of appearance of drought events in Manabí River Basin District (MRBD). This system can help to the decision makers, in December (short-term drought, seasonal) and in May (long-term drought, annual), to activate the drought measures in the following months. Six climate indices are used for ENSO: Oceanic Niño Index (ONI), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) for Niño regions: 4, 3.4, 3 and 1 + 2. On the other hand, two drought indices are used: spatially distributed Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) -1, 3, 6 and 12 months-, and a modified Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), derived from a calibrated water balance model. This system allows early drought detection, assessing SST 1 + 2 (lag -7), 3 (lag -9) and 3.4 (lag -9) anomalies and drought indices, in December for a season drought and May for an annual drought. These analyses demonstrates that, drought may forecasting up to 7-9 months before their occurrence, through SST regions observations, based on strong relationship between ENSO and droughts occurrence.
厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）是调节美洲太平洋沿岸热带洪水和干旱期的最主要气候模式。在过去几十年中，厄瓜多尔因干旱事件遭受了重大经济损失，约占 GDP 的 4%，主要集中在农业和畜牧业以及水力发电领域。干旱指标和早期干旱检测的使用有助于减少这些事件的影响。本文提出了一种基于 ENSO 和干旱指标的干旱预测系统，用于确定马纳比河流域地区（MRBD）出现干旱事件的可能性。该系统可以帮助决策者在 12 月（短期干旱、季节性）和 5 月（长期干旱、年度）确定未来数月是否会出现干旱，并采取相应的抗旱措施。本研究使用了六个气候指数来表示 ENSO：海洋厄尔尼诺指数（ONI）、南方涛动指数（SOI）和海表温度（SST），用于表示厄尔尼诺现象的四个区域：4、3.4、3 和 1+2。另一方面，本研究还使用了两个干旱指数：空间分布标准化降水指数（SPI）-1、3、6 和 12 个月-，以及一个经过校准的水量平衡模型得出的改良帕尔默干旱严重指数（PDSI）。该系统可以实现早期干旱检测，评估 SST 1+2（滞后-7）、3（滞后-9）和 3.4（滞后-9）异常以及干旱指数，从而在 12 月预测季节性干旱，在 5 月预测年度干旱。这些分析表明，通过对厄尔尼诺南方涛动与干旱发生之间的强关系进行观测，基于对海表温度区域的观测，干旱可以提前 7-9 个月进行预测。
