2020 年 5 月至 8 月巴西的 COVID-19 大流行：健康计量与评估研究所的预测与实际演变情况。
The COVID-19 Pandemic in Brazil: Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation projections and observed evolution, May-August, 2020.
机构信息
Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Programa de Pós-Graduação em Epidemiologia, Porto Alegre, RS, Brasil.
University of Washington, Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, Seattle, WA, Estados Unidos.
出版信息
Epidemiol Serv Saude. 2021 Feb 5;30(1):e2020680. doi: 10.1590/S1679-49742021000100017. eCollection 2021.
OBJECTIVE
To describe the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) projections for the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil and the Brazilian states, present their accuracy and discuss their implications.
METHODS
The IHME projections from May to August 2020 for Brazil and selected states were compared with the ensuing reported number of cumulative deaths.
RESULTS
The pandemic was projected to cause 182,809 deaths by December 1, 2020 in Brazil. An increase in mask use could reduce the projected death toll by ~17,000. The mean error in the cumulative number of deaths at 2, 4 and 6 weeks after the projections were made was 13%, 18% and 22%, respectively.
CONCLUSION
Short and medium-term projections provide important and sufficiently accurate data to inform health managers, elected officials, and society at large. After following an arduous course up until August, the pandemic is projected to decline steadily although slowly, with ~400 deaths/day still occurring in early December.
目的
描述健康指标与评估研究所（IHME）对巴西和巴西各州 COVID-19 大流行的预测，展示其准确性并讨论其影响。
方法
将 IHME 2020 年 5 月至 8 月对巴西和部分州的预测与随后报告的累计死亡人数进行比较。
结果
预计到 2020 年 12 月 1 日，巴西将有 182809 人死于该大流行。增加口罩使用量可能会使预测死亡人数减少约 17000 人。在进行预测后 2、4 和 6 周，死亡人数累计的平均误差分别为 13%、18%和 22%。
结论
短期和中期预测为卫生管理人员、民选官员和整个社会提供了重要且足够准确的数据。在 8 月之前经历了艰难的历程后，预计大流行将稳步下降，尽管速度缓慢，在 12 月初每天仍有约 400 人死亡。
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