CBER - Research Centre in Business, Economics & Resources, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, 97 Vo Van Tan Street, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Environ Sci Pollut Res Int. 2021 Jun;28(23):29795-29805. doi: 10.1007/s11356-021-12838-5. Epub 2021 Feb 10.
Vietnam has achieved impressive economic growth principally supported by foreign direct investment (FDI) in the last three decades. However, environmental deterioration is observed. No studies have ever been conducted to examine the link between economic growth and environmental degradation, focusing on the important role of the FDI, in Vietnam in both short run and long run. Using the ARDL and the threshold regression techniques for 35 years from 1986, Vietnam's "Doi Moi" (economic renovation), the U-shaped relationship between economic growth and the environmental quality is found in the long run and at the upper threshold of economic growth. FDI in the long run and at the upper threshold of economic growth also leads to further deterioration of the environmental quality. Also, consumption of fossil fuel energy deteriorates the environment in the long run, and at any level of economic growth. These findings simply mean that Vietnam has to adopt a new growth model with the focus on the quality FDI projects and clean energy sources to achieve the dual objectives: (i) sustained economic growth and (ii) improved environmental quality.
越南在过去三十年中主要依靠外国直接投资（FDI）实现了令人瞩目的经济增长。然而，环境恶化也随之而来。目前还没有研究探讨经济增长与环境退化之间的联系，特别是关注 FDI 在越南的短期和长期的重要作用。本研究使用 ARDL 和门槛回归技术，对 1986 年至 2021 年 35 年来的数据进行分析，发现越南的“Doi Moi”（经济改革）在长期内和在经济增长的上阈值存在经济增长与环境质量之间的 U 型关系。FDI 在长期内和在经济增长的上阈值也会导致环境质量的进一步恶化。此外，化石燃料能源的消费在长期内，在任何经济增长水平下，都会恶化环境。这些发现意味着越南必须采用新的增长模式，重点关注高质量的 FDI 项目和清洁能源，以实现双重目标：（i）持续的经济增长和（ii）改善环境质量。
