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物种气候响应曲线的形状影响群落对气候变化的响应。

Shape of species climate response curves affects community response to climate change.

机构信息

Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ, 08901, USA.

Scottish Association for Marine Science, Scottish Marine Institute, Dunbeg, Oban, Argyll, PA37 1QA, UK.

出版信息

Ecol Lett. 2021 Apr;24(4):708-718. doi: 10.1111/ele.13688. Epub 2021 Feb 14.

Abstract

Understanding how community composition is reshaped by changing climate is important for interpreting and predicting patterns of community assembly through time or across space. Community composition often does not perfectly correspond to expectations from current environmental conditions, leading to community-climate mismatches. Here, we combine data analysis and theory development to explore how species climate response curves affect the community response to climate change. We show that strong mismatches between community and climate can appear in the absence of demographic delays or limited species pools. Communities simulated using species response curves showed temporal changes of similar magnitude to those observed in natural communities of fishes and plankton, suggesting no overall delays in community change despite substantial unexplained variation from community assembly and other processes. Our approach can be considered as a null model that will be important to use when interpreting observed community responses to climate change and variability.

摘要

了解群落组成如何因气候变化而重塑,对于解释和预测群落随时间或空间的组装模式很重要。群落组成通常与当前环境条件的预期不完全相符,导致群落与气候不匹配。在这里,我们结合数据分析和理论发展来探讨物种气候响应曲线如何影响群落对气候变化的响应。我们表明,在没有人口延迟或有限的物种库的情况下,群落和气候之间可能会出现强烈的不匹配。使用物种响应曲线模拟的群落显示出与鱼类和浮游生物自然群落中观察到的相似的时间变化,这表明尽管群落组装和其他过程存在大量无法解释的变化,但群落变化并没有总体延迟。我们的方法可以被视为一个零模型,在解释观察到的群落对气候变化和变异性的响应时,这个模型非常重要。

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