Pinsky Malin L, Hillebrand Helmut, Chase Jonathan M, Antão Laura H, Hirt Myriam R, Brose Ulrich, Burrows Michael T, Gauzens Benoit, Rosenbaum Benjamin, Blowes Shane A
Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA.
Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of California Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, USA.
Nature. 2025 Feb;638(8052):995-999. doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-08456-z. Epub 2025 Jan 29.
Turnover in species composition through time is a dominant form of biodiversity change, which has profound effects on the functioning of ecological communities. Turnover rates differ markedly among communities, but the drivers of this variation across taxa and realms remain unknown. Here we analyse 42,225 time series of species composition from marine, terrestrial and freshwater assemblages, and show that temporal rates of turnover were consistently faster in locations that experienced faster temperature change, including both warming and cooling. In addition, assemblages with limited access to microclimate refugia or that faced stronger human impacts on land were especially responsive to temperature change, with up to 48% of species replaced per decade. These results reveal a widespread signal of vulnerability to continuing climate change and highlight which ecological communities are most sensitive, raising concerns about ecosystem integrity as climate change and other human impacts accelerate.
物种组成随时间的更替是生物多样性变化的一种主要形式,对生态群落的功能有着深远影响。群落之间的更替率差异显著,但这种跨分类群和领域的变化驱动因素仍不为人知。在此,我们分析了来自海洋、陆地和淡水群落的42225个物种组成时间序列,结果表明,在经历更快温度变化(包括变暖和变冷)的地点,物种随时间的更替率始终更快。此外,获取小气候避难所机会有限或面临更强人类陆地影响的群落对温度变化尤其敏感,每十年多达48%的物种被更替。这些结果揭示了对持续气候变化的广泛脆弱性信号,并突出了哪些生态群落最为敏感,随着气候变化和其他人类影响加速,引发了对生态系统完整性的担忧。