Reddin Carl J, Landwehrs Jan P, Mathes Gregor H, Ullmann Clemens V, Feulner Georg, Aberhan Martin
Museum für Naturkunde Berlin - Leibniz Institute for Evolution and Biodiversity Science, Berlin, Germany.
GeoZentrum Nordbayern, Universität Erlangen-Nürnberg, Erlangen, Germany.
Nat Commun. 2025 Feb 5;16(1):1370. doi: 10.1038/s41467-025-56589-0.
A mismatch of species' thermal preferences to their environment may indicate how they will respond to future climate change. Averaging this mismatch across species may forewarn that some assemblages will undergo greater reorganization, extirpation, and possibly extinction, than others. Here, we examine how regional warming determines species occupancy and assemblage composition of marine bivalves, brachiopods, and gastropods over one-million-year time steps during the Early Jurassic. Thermal bias, the difference between modelled regional temperatures and species' long-term thermal optima, predicts a gradient of species occupancy response to warming. Species that become extirpated or extinct tend to have cooler temperature preferences than immigrating species, while regionally persisting species fell midway. Larger regional changes in summer seawater temperatures (up to +10 °C) strengthen the relationship between species thermal bias and the response gradient, which is also stronger for brachiopods than for bivalves, while the relationship collapses during severe seawater deoxygenation. At +3 °C regional seawater warming, around 5 % of pre-existing benthic species in a regional assemblage are extirpated, and immigrating species comprise around one-fourth of the new assemblage. Our results validate thermal bias as an indicator of immigration, persistence, extirpation, and extinction of marine benthic species and assemblages under modern-like magnitudes of climate change.
物种的热偏好与其环境之间的不匹配可能表明它们将如何应对未来的气候变化。对物种间的这种不匹配进行平均，可能会预先警示某些生物群落将比其他群落经历更大规模的重组、灭绝，甚至可能消失。在此，我们研究了在早侏罗世期间，区域变暖如何以百万年的时间步长决定海洋双壳类、腕足类和腹足类动物的物种占有率和群落组成。热偏差，即模拟的区域温度与物种长期热最适值之间的差异，预测了物种占有率对变暖的响应梯度。灭绝或消失的物种往往比迁入的物种具有更凉爽的温度偏好，而在区域内持续存在的物种则介于两者之间。夏季海水温度的较大区域变化（高达 +10°C）加强了物种热偏差与响应梯度之间的关系，这种关系对于腕足类动物也比对双壳类动物更强，而在严重的海水脱氧过程中这种关系则瓦解。在区域海水变暖 3°C 时，区域群落中约 5% 的原有底栖物种灭绝，迁入的物种约占新群落的四分之一。我们的结果验证了热偏差作为现代气候变化幅度下海洋底栖物种和群落迁移、持续存在、灭绝和消失的指标。
