癌症患者护理人力预测。

Nursing manpower forecast for cancer patients.

机构信息

Department of Nursing, College of Nursing, Taipei Medical University, Taiwan, ROC; Department of Nursing, Shuang Ho Hospital, Taipei Medical University, New Taipei City, Taiwan.

Department of Computer Science and Information Management, Hungkuang University, Taiwan, ROC.

出版信息

Comput Methods Programs Biomed. 2021 Apr;201:105967. doi: 10.1016/j.cmpb.2021.105967. Epub 2021 Feb 2.

DOI:10.1016/j.cmpb.2021.105967

PMID:33588340

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

This paper presents a dynamic model aimed at predicting nursing manpower requirements for cancer care over the next ten years. The proposed model, based on the Taiwan Health Insurance Database (2000 to 2010), is meant to serve as a reference in establishing policy for government health units.

METHODS

The proposed prediction model uses fuzzy sets to replace definite values with interval values in order to account for uncertainties in real-world data and enhance the flexibility of prediction results.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that the demand for nursing manpower for cancer care will grow steadily in the foreseeable future. The gap between the demand for nursing staff and the supply is expected to peak in 2027. By then, the number of oncologists is expected to reach 7,083 (54.32% of the total number of in-hospital physicians), but the number of oncology nurses will be less than 26,297 (56.5% of the total healthcare manpower). It is also expected that there will be fewer than 1,613 outpatient physicians (71.81% of the total number of physicians) and fewer than 4,967 outpatient nurses (68.46% of the total nursing manpower).

CONCLUSIONS

This paper provides a valuable reference for government agencies involved in the nursing manpower planning to improve the quality of nursing care.

摘要

背景与目的

本文提出了一个旨在预测未来十年癌症护理护理人力需求的动态模型。该模型基于台湾健康保险数据库（2000 年至 2010 年），旨在为政府卫生部门制定政策提供参考。

方法

所提出的预测模型使用模糊集将确定值替换为区间值，以考虑实际数据中的不确定性并提高预测结果的灵活性。

结果

我们的结果表明，癌症护理护理人力需求在可预见的未来将稳步增长。护理人员需求与供应之间的差距预计将在 2027 年达到峰值。届时，肿瘤学家的数量预计将达到 7083 人（占住院医师总数的 54.32%），但肿瘤护士的数量将少于 26297 人（占总医疗人力的 56.5%）。预计门诊医生人数将少于 1613 人（占医生总数的 71.81%），门诊护士人数将少于 4967 人（占总护理人力的 68.46%）。