Wu XiuLi, Kang Aimei
Hubei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Hazard Identification and Control, Institute of Nursing Research, School of Medicine, Wuhan University of Science and Technology, Wuhan Hubei, China.
Department of Nursing, Wuhan Asia General Hospital Affiliated to Wuhan University of Science and Technology, WuHan, China.
Asian Pac Isl Nurs J. 2024 Aug 14;8:e59484. doi: 10.2196/59484.
In a global context, the shortage of nursing personnel has emerged as a significant challenge, particularly in countries such as China experiencing population aging. The inadequacy of nursing human resources has become one of the primary threats affecting the quality of health services available to Chinese residents. Therefore, forecasting the demand for nursing personnel has become an important issue.
This study presents a Gray GM (1,1) forecasting model for predicting the future 10-year demand for nursing workforce and the number of specialized geriatric nurses, aiming to provide a scientific basis for the development of policies in health care institutions in China.
Based on data from the China Statistical Yearbook 2022, the Gray GM (1,1) model was used to predict the demand for nursing jobs and geriatric nurses over the next 10 years (2024-2033).
The results indicate that from 2024 to 2033, amidst a continuous growth in the overall population and an increasingly pronounced trend of population aging, the demand for nursing workforce in China, especially for specialized geriatric nurses, is projected to steadily increase.
The paper provides a reference basis for the establishment of China's health care workforce system and the involvement of government departments in health care workforce planning.
在全球范围内，护理人员短缺已成为一项重大挑战，尤其是在中国等面临人口老龄化的国家。护理人力资源不足已成为影响中国居民可获得的卫生服务质量的主要威胁之一。因此，预测护理人员需求已成为一个重要问题。
本研究提出一种灰色GM（1,1）预测模型，用于预测未来10年护理劳动力和老年专科护士的需求，旨在为中国医疗机构的政策制定提供科学依据。
基于《中国统计年鉴2022》的数据，采用灰色GM（1,1）模型预测未来10年（2024 - 2033年）的护理岗位和老年专科护士需求。
结果表明，2024年至2033年期间，在总人口持续增长和人口老龄化趋势日益明显的情况下，预计中国护理劳动力需求，尤其是老年专科护士需求将稳步增加。
本文为中国卫生保健劳动力体系的建立以及政府部门参与卫生保健劳动力规划提供了参考依据。
