佛罗里达州 COVID-19 大流行期间超额死亡分析。
Analysis of Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic in the State of Florida.
机构信息
Moosa Tatar and Fernando A. Wilson are with the Matheson Center for Health Care Studies and the Department of Population Health Sciences, University of Utah, Salt Lake City. Amir Habibdoust is with the Department of Economics and Accounting, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran.
出版信息
Am J Public Health. 2021 Apr;111(4):704-707. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2020.306130. Epub 2021 Feb 18.
To determine the number of excess deaths (i.e., those exceeding historical trends after accounting for COVID-19 deaths) occurring in Florida during the COVID-19 pandemic. Using seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average time-series modeling and historical mortality trends in Florida, we forecasted monthly deaths from January to September of 2020 in the absence of the pandemic. We compared estimated deaths with monthly recorded total deaths (i.e., all deaths regardless of cause) during the COVID-19 pandemic and deaths only from COVID-19 to measure excess deaths in Florida. Our results suggest that Florida experienced 19 241 (15.5%) excess deaths above historical trends from March to September 2020, including 14 317 COVID-19 deaths and an additional 4924 all-cause, excluding COVID-19, deaths in that period. Total deaths are significantly higher than historical trends in Florida even when accounting for COVID-19-related deaths. The impact of COVID-19 on mortality is significantly greater than the official COVID-19 data suggest.
为了确定在 COVID-19 大流行期间佛罗里达州发生的超额死亡人数（即，在考虑 COVID-19 死亡人数后超过历史趋势的死亡人数）。我们使用季节性自回归综合移动平均时间序列模型和佛罗里达州的历史死亡率趋势，预测了 2020 年 1 月至 9 月无大流行情况下的每月死亡人数。我们将估计的死亡人数与 COVID-19 大流行期间每月记录的总死亡人数（即，无论死因如何的所有死亡人数）进行了比较，并仅将 COVID-19 死亡人数与 COVID-19 进行了比较，以衡量佛罗里达州的超额死亡人数。我们的结果表明，从 2020 年 3 月到 9 月，佛罗里达州经历了 19241 例（15.5%）超过历史趋势的超额死亡，其中包括 14317 例 COVID-19 死亡和同期另外 4924 例非 COVID-19 全因死亡。即使考虑到与 COVID-19 相关的死亡人数，佛罗里达州的总死亡人数也明显高于历史趋势。COVID-19 对死亡率的影响明显大于官方 COVID-19 数据所表明的影响。
Zotero 插件