Raman Research Institute, Bangalore 560080, India.
International Center for Theoretical Sciences, Tata Institute of Fundamental Research, Bangalore 560089, India.
Phys Rev E. 2021 Jan;103(1):L010301. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.103.L010301.
During a pandemic, there are conflicting demands that arise from public health and socioeconomic costs. Lockdowns are a common way of containing infections, but they adversely affect the economy. We study the question of how to minimize the socioeconomic damage of a lockdown while still containing infections. Our analysis is based on the SIR model, which we analyze using a clock set by the virus. This use of the "virus time" permits a clean mathematical formulation of our problem. We optimize the socioeconomic cost for a fixed health cost and arrive at a strategy for navigating the pandemic. This involves adjusting the level of lockdowns in a controlled manner so as to minimize the socioeconomic cost.
在大流行期间，公共卫生和社会经济成本会产生相互冲突的需求。封锁是控制感染的常见方法，但它们会对经济产生不利影响。我们研究如何在控制感染的同时，将封锁对社会经济的破坏降到最低。我们的分析基于 SIR 模型，该模型使用病毒设置的时钟进行分析。这种使用“病毒时间”的方法可以为我们的问题提供一个清晰的数学公式。我们针对固定的健康成本优化社会经济成本，并制定出一种应对大流行的策略。这涉及以可控的方式调整封锁级别，以最小化社会经济成本。
