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有效管理诊断检测以监测意大利的新冠疫情。

Effectively managing diagnostic tests to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy.

作者信息

Lampariello Lorenzo, Sagratella Simone

机构信息

Department of Business Studies, Roma Tre University, Rome, Italy.

Department of Computer, Control and Management Engineering Antonio Ruberti, Sapienza University of Rome, Rome, Italy.

出版信息

Oper Res Health Care. 2021 Mar;28:100287. doi: 10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100287. Epub 2021 Feb 17.

DOI:10.1016/j.orhc.2021.100287
PMID:33614403
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7886628/
Abstract

Urged by the outbreak of the COVID-19 in Italy, this study aims at helping to tackle the spread of the disease by resorting to operations research techniques. In particular, we propose a mathematical program to model the problem of establishing how many diagnostic tests the Italian regions must perform in order to maximize the overall disease detection capability. An important feature of our approach is its simplicity: data we resort to are easy to obtain and one can employ standard optimization tools to address the problem. The results we obtain when applying our method to the Italian case seem promising.

摘要

受意大利新冠肺炎疫情爆发的推动,本研究旨在借助运筹学技术来帮助应对该疾病的传播。具体而言,我们提出一个数学规划模型,以确定意大利各地区必须进行多少诊断测试,才能使整体疾病检测能力最大化。我们方法的一个重要特点是其简单性:我们所使用的数据易于获取,并且可以使用标准的优化工具来解决该问题。当我们将方法应用于意大利的情况时,所获得的结果似乎很有前景。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/736ad229cc60/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/1b348ad0b2d1/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/1af6983f97cd/fx1001_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/736ad229cc60/gr2_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/1b348ad0b2d1/gr1_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/1af6983f97cd/fx1001_lrg.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/7784/7886628/736ad229cc60/gr2_lrg.jpg

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本文引用的文献

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From predictions to prescriptions: A data-driven response to COVID-19.从预测到处方:应对 COVID-19 的数据驱动方法。
Health Care Manag Sci. 2021 Jun;24(2):253-272. doi: 10.1007/s10729-020-09542-0. Epub 2021 Feb 15.
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Reconciling early-outbreak estimates of the basic reproductive number and its uncertainty: framework and applications to the novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak.协调基本繁殖数及其不确定性的早期暴发估计:新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)暴发的框架和应用。
J R Soc Interface. 2020 Jul;17(168):20200144. doi: 10.1098/rsif.2020.0144. Epub 2020 Jul 22.
3
Estimating the infection and case fatality ratio for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) using age-adjusted data from the outbreak on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, February 2020.
在病毒流行期间优化用于聚合酶链反应(PCR)检测的拭子和试剂分配
Omega. 2021 Jul;102:102341. doi: 10.1016/j.omega.2020.102341. Epub 2020 Sep 22.
利用 2020 年 2 月钻石公主号游轮上疫情的年龄调整后数据估计冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的感染和病死率。
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(12). doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.12.2000256.