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COVID-19 感染大流行:来自意大利前线的报告。

COVID-19 Infection Pandemic: From the Frontline in Italy.

机构信息

Institute of Clinical Physiology, CNR, Cardiometabolic Risk Unit, Pisa, Italy.

Polyclinic of Abano Terme, Anesthesia and Intensive Care Unit, Padova, Italy.

出版信息

J Am Coll Nutr. 2020 Nov-Dec;39(8):677-684. doi: 10.1080/07315724.2020.1779147. Epub 2020 Oct 16.

Abstract

The infection caused by COVID-19 (i.e. corona virus disease 2019) has caused more than 5.2 million cases and more than 337,000 deaths worldwide. Italy was the European epicenter for virus spread and one with most cases and deaths. The first Italian patient was diagnosed on February 18, a young man hospitalized in Lombardy (Northern Italy). The Italian government not only isolated the village where he lived, but a few days later put the entire country in lockdown. We have here analyzed the COVID-19 Italian data during the first three months after the outbreak and the effect of lockdown. COVID-19 virus has a high transmission rate and is associated with high fatality rate especially in the older population. The initial reproduction rate of the virus (R0) in Italy was between 2.1 and 3.3 in different Italian regions, with a doubling time between 2.7 and 3.2 days. The number of confirmed cases has now reached 229,000 but after the lockdown R0 is finally below 1. Despite the lockdown, the number of infected and deceased patients in Italy was very high, with a lethality rate higher than in other countries. It is likely that number of cases is underestimating the real since the number of asymptomatic and paucisymptomatic is relatively high. It is important to investigate which patients are more vulnerable and also if other co-factors can account for this high fatality rate, since this pandemia is far from being resolved.

摘要

由 COVID-19(即 2019 年冠状病毒病)引起的感染已在全球范围内导致超过 520 万例病例和超过 33.7 万人死亡。意大利是病毒传播的欧洲中心,也是病例和死亡人数最多的国家之一。意大利的首例患者于 2 月 18 日被诊断出,是一名住在伦巴第(意大利北部)的住院青年。意大利政府不仅隔离了他居住的村庄,几天后还对整个国家实施了封锁。我们在这里分析了疫情爆发后头三个月的意大利 COVID-19 数据以及封锁的效果。COVID-19 病毒的传播率很高,并且与高死亡率相关,尤其是在老年人群中。病毒的初始繁殖率(R0)在意大利不同地区之间为 2.1 到 3.3,倍增时间为 2.7 到 3.2 天。确诊病例数现已达到 22.9 万,但封锁后 R0 终于低于 1。尽管实施了封锁,但意大利的感染和死亡人数仍然很高,死亡率高于其他国家。由于无症状和轻症患者相对较多,因此病例数可能低估了实际情况。重要的是要调查哪些患者更容易受到影响,以及其他共同因素是否可以解释这种高死亡率,因为这场大流行远未结束。

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