The impact of smoking on annual healthcare cost: an econometric model analysis in China, 2015.

BACKGROUND

Smoking exerts substantial medical burdens on society. Precise estimation of the smoking-attributable medical expenditures (SAME) helps to inform tobacco control policy makers. Based on the epidemiological approach, prior studies in China only focused on a few smoking-related diseases to estimate SAME. In contrast, this study used the econometric approach, which is capable of capturing all of the potential costs.

METHODS

Three waves of panel data from the 2011-2015 national China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were used. A total of 34,503 observations aged 45 and above were identified. Estimates from econometric models were combined to predict the smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) and medical expenditures attributable to smoking by sex, registered residency and healthcare service categories. All monetary amounts were adjusted to 2015 dollars.

RESULTS

In 2015, the overall smoking-attributable fraction (SAF) of China was 10.97%, ranging from 5.77% for self-medication to 16.87% for inpatient visits. The smoking-attributable medical expenditure (SAME) was about $45.28 billion, accounting for 7.24% of the total health expenditure. The SAME was $226.77 per smoker aged 45 and above. The regression results suggest that being a former smoker has the greatest impact, which decreases over time after quitting however, on the value of medical expenditures.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking-attributable medical expenditures was substantial and placed a heavy burden on Chinese society. Comprehensive tobacco control policies and regulations are still needed to promote progress toward curbing the tobacco related losses.