Environment Agency, Horizon House, Bristol, UK.
School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2021 Apr 19;379(2195):20200219. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2020.0219. Epub 2021 Mar 1.
The UK Climate Change Act requires the Environment Agency to report the risks it faces from climate change and actions taken to address these. Derived information from projections is critical to understanding likely impacts in water management. In 2019, the UK published an ensemble of high-resolution model simulations. The UKCP Local (2.2 km) projections can resolve smaller scale physical processes that determine rainfall and other variables at subdaily time-scales with the potential to provide new insights into extreme events, storm runoff and drainage management. However, simulations also need to inform adaptation. The challenge ahead is to identify and provide derived products without the need for further analysis by decision-makers. These include a wider evaluation of uncertainty, narratives about rainfall change across the projections and bias-corrected datasets. Future flood maps, peak rainfall estimates, uplift factors and future design storm profiles also need detailed guidance to support their use. Central government support is justified in the provision of up-to-date impacts information to inform flood risk management, given the large risks and exposure of all sectors. The further development of projections would benefit from greater focus and earlier scoping with industry representatives, operational tool developers and end users. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes and implications for flash flood risks'.
英国气候变化法案要求环境署报告其面临的气候变化风险以及为应对这些风险而采取的行动。从预测中得出的信息对于理解水资源管理中的可能影响至关重要。2019 年，英国发布了一组高分辨率模型模拟。英国气候预测局部（2.2 公里）的预测可以解析更小尺度的物理过程，这些过程决定了亚日时间尺度的降雨和其他变量，有潜力提供对极端事件、暴洪和排水管理的新见解。然而，模拟也需要为适应气候变化提供信息。未来的挑战是在决策者不需要进一步分析的情况下识别和提供衍生产品。这些包括更广泛地评估不确定性、关于预测范围内降雨变化的说明以及经过偏差修正的数据集。未来的洪水图、峰值降雨估计、抬升因子和未来设计风暴剖面也需要详细的指导，以支持它们的使用。鉴于所有部门面临的巨大风险和暴露，中央政府有理由为洪水风险管理提供最新的影响信息。为了进一步发展预测，需要与行业代表、运营工具开发人员和最终用户更集中和更早地进行范围界定。本文是关于“短时间降雨极端事件的加剧及其对暴洪风险的影响”的讨论会议议题的一部分。
