Influence of heat stress on milk production and its financial implications in semi-arid areas of South Africa.

Heat stress affects dairy cows' feed intake, reproductive system and milk production. This study analysed the financial implications of heat stress for small scale milk producers. The semi-arid regions of the Free State - Bloemfontein, Bothaville, and Bethlehem were selected for the study. To estimate the impact of heat stress on milk production, baseline (1950-1999) and mid-century (2040-2070) climate data and Temperature Humidity Index thresholds (THI) of 70 and 65 were used. Mid-century data with no adaptation strategy resulted in a doubled loss, while moderate heat-mitigation strategies (wetting and forced ventilation) resulted in positive improvements in milk production and income of farmers. Results show strong polynomial correlations (R of 0.73-0.79) between the T and milk-production losses where above T of 25°C, milk-production loss increased sharply. The combined average loss of milk production during the hot summer was estimated at 0.35 liters per cow in a day, which is equivalent to ZAR1.27 per cow per day. With changing climate, the highest revenue loss was recorded in the MPI_ESM_MR future climate scenario. Moreover, results from the questionnaires show that heat stress reduces farmers' milk production significantly in the summertime, and for most of the respondents, measures that should be taken are too costly to apply. Exhaustive analysis of the economic impacts of heat stress on milk production is recommended for future studies, as it is an important sector in alleviating household food insecurity in South Africa.