Arogundade Sodiq, Hassan Adewale Samuel, Mduduzi Biyase
College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus PO Box 524 Auckland Park, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Heliyon. 2024 Oct 11;10(20):e39288. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2024.e39288. eCollection 2024 Oct 30.
This study investigates the link between climate change and economic growth in Nigeria from 1961 to 2022. To provide a robust analysis that facilitates a nuanced examination of this dynamic relationship, this study employs state-of-the-art econometric approaches, including autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL), fully modified least squares (FMOLS), novel quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL), and time-varying causality. The empirical results of this study are as follows: (1) the impact of climate change on economic growth is not felt in the short run. However, climate change negatively influences economic growth in Nigeria in the long run, (2) the elasticity of climate change increases across the conditional quantile economic growth, (3) unidirectional causality from climate change to economic growth across different time dimensions. These empirical outcomes advocate for a proactive and adaptive policy framework, emphasising the need for the Nigerian government to adopt climate-smart policies.
本研究考察了1961年至2022年尼日利亚气候变化与经济增长之间的联系。为了提供一个稳健的分析，以便对这种动态关系进行细致入微的考察，本研究采用了最先进的计量经济学方法，包括自回归分布滞后（ARDL）、完全修正最小二乘法（FMOLS）、新型分位数自回归分布滞后（QARDL）和时变因果关系。本研究的实证结果如下：（1）短期内气候变化对经济增长的影响不明显。然而，从长期来看，气候变化对尼日利亚的经济增长产生负面影响；（2）气候变化的弹性在有条件的分位数经济增长中有所增加；（3）在不同时间维度上，从气候变化到经济增长存在单向因果关系。这些实证结果倡导建立一个积极主动的适应性政策框架，强调尼日利亚政府需要采取气候智能型政策。
