Human Variation and Identification Research Unit, School of Anatomical Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, South Africa.
Department of Medical Biology, Amsterdam University Medical Centres, location AMC, University of Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
Forensic Sci Int. 2021 Apr;321:110740. doi: 10.1016/j.forsciint.2021.110740. Epub 2021 Feb 22.
The Acsádi and Nemeskéri Complex Method is a multifactorial adult age estimation method that makes use of weighting systems. The Complex Method employs the use of four skeletal elements in assessing age, including the degree of endocranial suture closure, age-related changes to the pubic symphyseal surface, and the internal structural changes observable in the proximal humerus and femur. Acsádi and Nemeskéri reported a very optimistic error margin of ±2.5 years when all four skeletal elements were used. Despite these promising results, the Complex Method's effectiveness has been questioned, suggesting that it results in a constant over- and underestimation of age in younger and older groups, respectively. In this study, the Complex Method was tested on a modern South African skeletal sample (n = 313) with individuals of known age-at-death. Results from this study to some extent justify the critique levelled against the Complex Method's tendency to over- and underestimate age. Nevertheless, the Complex Method still performed surprisingly well for certain skeletal element combinations. Contrary to Acsádi and Nemeskéri's findings, the use of all four skeletal elements did not provide more accurate age estimates. For the most part, combinations making use of three or two skeletal elements outperformed the use of all four skeletal indicators. Results from this study indicate caution in using a blanket approach when it comes to deciding on the best combination of skeletal elements used in multifactorial methods. It is suggested that the Complex Method may be optimised by making use of sex- and population-specific skeletal element combinations and weighting systems in the future.
阿西迪-内梅斯基复合法是一种多因素成年人年龄估测方法，利用加权系统。该方法在评估年龄时使用了四个骨骼元素，包括内颅缝闭合程度、耻骨联合表面的年龄相关变化，以及在肱骨和股骨近端可观察到的内部结构变化。阿西迪和内梅斯基报告称，当所有四个骨骼元素都被使用时，其误差幅度非常乐观，为±2.5 年。尽管有这些令人鼓舞的结果，但该复合法的有效性受到了质疑，表明它分别导致对年轻和老年组的年龄产生持续的高估和低估。在这项研究中，复合法在一个现代南非骨骼样本（n=313）上进行了测试，这些骨骼样本的个体具有已知的死亡年龄。本研究的结果在一定程度上证明了对复合法倾向于高估和低估年龄的批评是合理的。然而，对于某些骨骼元素组合，复合法的性能仍然非常出色。与阿西迪和内梅斯基的发现相反，使用所有四个骨骼元素并不能提供更准确的年龄估计。在大多数情况下，使用三个或两个骨骼元素的组合比使用所有四个骨骼指标的组合表现更好。本研究的结果表明，在决定多因素方法中使用的最佳骨骼元素组合时，应谨慎使用一刀切的方法。建议未来可以通过利用性别和人群特异性的骨骼元素组合和加权系统来优化复合法。
