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具有空间异质性和媒介偏好的两株疟疾传播模型分析

Analysis of a two-strain malaria transmission model with spatial heterogeneity and vector-bias.

作者信息

Shi Yangyang, Zhao Hongyong

机构信息

Department of Mathematics, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing, 210016, People's Republic of China.

出版信息

J Math Biol. 2021 Mar 1;82(4):24. doi: 10.1007/s00285-021-01577-3.

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a reaction-diffusion malaria model which incorporates vector-bias, spatial heterogeneity, sensitive and resistant strains. The main question that we study is the threshold dynamics of the model, in particular, whether the existence of spatial structure would allow two strains to coexist. In order to achieve this goal, we define the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and introduce the invasion reproduction number [Formula: see text] for strain [Formula: see text]. A quantitative analysis shows that if [Formula: see text], then disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, while competitive exclusion, where strain i persists and strain j dies out, is a possible outcome when [Formula: see text] [Formula: see text], and a unique solution with two strains coexist to the model is globally asymptotically stable if [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text]. Numerical simulations reinforce these analytical results and demonstrate epidemiological interaction between two strains, discuss the influence of resistant strains and study the effects of vector-bias on the transmission of malaria.

摘要

在本文中,我们引入了一个反应扩散疟疾模型,该模型纳入了媒介偏好、空间异质性、敏感菌株和抗性菌株。我们研究的主要问题是该模型的阈值动态,特别是空间结构的存在是否会允许两种菌株共存。为了实现这一目标,我们定义了基本再生数[公式:见正文],并引入了菌株[公式:见正文]的入侵再生数[公式:见正文]。定量分析表明,如果[公式:见正文],则无病稳态是全局渐近稳定的,而当[公式:见正文][公式:见正文]时,菌株i持续存在而菌株j灭绝的竞争排斥是一种可能的结果,并且如果[公式:见正文],[公式:见正文],则模型中两种菌株共存的唯一解是全局渐近稳定的。数值模拟强化了这些分析结果,展示了两种菌株之间的流行病学相互作用,讨论了抗性菌株的影响,并研究了媒介偏好对疟疾传播的影响。

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